Rapid Read: Geopolitical Must-Knows for Today (10 July 2025)
This is my news scan from 9 July 2025 at 0747 Eastern Time until 10 July 2025 at 0747 Eastern Time
Executives Reveal Where They See Henry Hub Price Landing in Future
Industry executives predict Henry Hub natural gas prices will stabilize around $3.50-$4.00 per MMBtu in the near future, driven by steady demand and production trends. They highlight increased LNG exports and domestic consumption as key factors supporting this range. However, uncertainties like weather events and global market shifts could push prices higher or lower. The consensus reflects cautious optimism for a balanced market in the coming years.
Copper now costs way more in the U.S. than elsewhere. This could hit its economy hard
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/us-copper-price-premium-economic-consequences.html
Copper prices in the U.S. are significantly higher than global markets, creating a premium that threatens economic competitiveness. This disparity stems from supply chain disruptions and increased domestic demand, particularly in tech and renewable energy sectors. Higher costs could inflate prices for goods like electronics and infrastructure, impacting consumers and businesses. Economists warn this trend may strain U.S. manufacturing and slow economic growth if unresolved.
India Seeks to Dodge Trump’s BRICS Wrath as It Eyes Trade Deal
India is navigating tensions with the U.S. over its BRICS membership as it pursues a bilateral trade deal. President Trump has warned India against aligning too closely with BRICS, threatening tariffs if it doesn’t prioritize U.S. trade terms. Indian officials are emphasizing economic reforms to appeal to U.S. interests while maintaining strategic autonomy. The outcome could reshape India’s trade strategy and its role in global alliances.
Operationalizing a Quad Critical Minerals Pact
https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/operationalizing-a-quad-critical-minerals-pact/
The Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) is advancing a critical minerals pact to secure supply chains for materials like lithium and rare earths. The initiative aims to counter China’s dominance in mineral processing and ensure stable supplies for tech and renewable energy. Challenges include aligning regulatory frameworks and addressing environmental concerns in mining. Successful implementation could bolster the Quad’s geopolitical influence and economic resilience.
Chinese Exporters Reroute Rare Earths to Keep Supplying U.S.
Chinese exporters are rerouting rare earth shipments through third countries to bypass U.S. restrictions and maintain supply to American markets. This strategy follows tightened U.S. regulations aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese critical minerals. The rerouting raises concerns about supply chain transparency and potential cost increases for U.S. industries like tech and defense. It underscores ongoing tensions in U.S.-China trade dynamics over strategic resources.
Plaquemines LNG Achieves Record Output, Earns More Than Double U.S. Natural Gas Benchmark Price
Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana has reached a record output, producing 2.6 Bcf/d and earning over twice the Henry Hub benchmark price. High global demand, particularly from Europe and Asia, drives these premium prices for LNG exports. The facility’s success highlights the U.S.’s growing role as a leading LNG supplier. However, analysts warn that market volatility could impact future profitability.
Who Is The Biggest Renewable Energy Generator?
China leads as the world’s largest renewable energy generator, driven by massive investments in solar and wind capacity. The U.S. and EU follow, with significant growth in solar and offshore wind projects. Challenges like grid integration and storage remain barriers to scaling renewable output globally. The article emphasizes the need for policy support to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels.
Trump Reveals New Batch of Tariffs From Iraq to Philippines
President Trump has announced new tariffs on 14 countries, including a 20% rate on the Philippines, to address trade imbalances. The tariffs target goods like electronics and agricultural products, aiming to boost U.S. manufacturing. Affected nations are warned against retaliation, which could escalate trade tensions. Economists predict mixed impacts, with potential benefits for domestic industries but risks of higher consumer prices.
US targets Iran 'shadow banking' network with new sanctions
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5392522-us-sanctions-iran-shadows-banking/
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on an Iranian “shadow banking” network accused of laundering money to fund terrorism and evade restrictions. The network allegedly facilitated millions in transactions for Iran’s military and proxies like Hezbollah. These measures aim to disrupt illicit financing but may complicate diplomatic efforts with Iran. Critics argue the sanctions could harm ordinary Iranians by limiting access to global markets.
‘Shoot them in the leg’: Kenyan president’s anti-protest rhetoric hardens as death toll rises
Kenya’s President has intensified anti-protest rhetoric, reportedly ordering police to “shoot [protesters] in the leg” as unrest over economic policies escalates. The crackdown has led to a rising death toll, with dozens killed and hundreds injured in clashes. Protesters demand reforms to address unemployment and inflation, accusing the government of authoritarianism. International observers urge de-escalation to prevent further violence and restore stability.
Ship attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels sinks in the Red Sea, 6 of 25 aboard rescued
A ship attacked by Yemen’s Houthi rebels sank in the Red Sea, with only 6 of 25 crew members rescued. The attack, linked to Houthi solidarity with Palestinian causes, targeted a commercial vessel amid escalating regional tensions. The sinking disrupts vital Red Sea shipping routes, raising concerns about global trade. International navies are increasing patrols to counter further Houthi aggression.
Trump announces new tariffs on 14 countries and warns them via letters to not retaliate
https://apnews.com/article/trump-japan-south-korea-tariff-25-2c725e8f06367e20f9300c1081ea4ec0
President Trump has imposed tariffs on 14 countries, including 25% rates on Japan and South Korea, to protect U.S. economic interests. He sent letters to affected nations, warning against retaliatory measures that could spark trade wars. The tariffs target industries like automotive and technology, aiming to boost domestic production. Critics warn of potential supply chain disruptions and higher costs for American consumers.
Brazil will respond to Trump's 50% tariff with 'reciprocity,' says da Silva
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/trump-brazil-tariffs-bolsonaro.html
Brazil’s President Lula da Silva vowed “reciprocity” in response to Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, signaling potential counter-tariffs. The U.S. tariffs aim to address trade deficits but risk straining bilateral relations with Brazil, a key agricultural exporter. Lula’s response reflects growing concerns among emerging economies about U.S. protectionism. Analysts predict this could disrupt global commodity markets and raise prices.
Will Trump’s Bill Trigger a ‘Big, Beautiful’ Energy Crunch?
Trump’s proposed energy policies, including tariffs and deregulation, could lead to an energy crunch by prioritizing fossil fuel production over renewables. The bill aims to boost U.S. energy independence but risks inflating costs for consumers and industries. Critics argue it may undermine global climate goals and strain energy markets. Supporters claim it will create jobs and stabilize domestic energy supplies.
Discount on Western Canada Select narrows
https://boereport.com/2025/07/09/discount-on-western-canada-select-narrows-4/
The discount on Western Canada Select (WCS) crude compared to WTI has narrowed due to improved pipeline capacity and strong U.S. demand. This reduces the price gap, boosting profitability for Canadian oil producers. However, market volatility and potential U.S. tariffs could reverse these gains. The trend reflects growing integration of Canadian oil into global markets.
Brazil, Guyana, Argentina Fuel a New Oil Boom
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Brazil-Guyana-Argentina-Fuel-a-New-Oil-Boom.html
Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are driving a new oil boom in South America, with major offshore discoveries and increased production. Brazil’s pre-salt fields and Guyana’s Stabroek Block are attracting significant investment from global oil majors. Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale is also ramping up output, bolstering regional energy exports. The boom could shift global oil dynamics but faces environmental and regulatory challenges.
Why OPEC+ Is Pumping Fast and Playing Hardball
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-OPEC-Is-Pumping-Fast-and-Playing-Hardball.html
OPEC+ is increasing oil production to capture market share amid rising non-OPEC supply from countries like the U.S. and Guyana. The group is adopting a hardline stance in negotiations, resisting pressure to cut output despite volatile prices. This strategy aims to maintain revenue for member states but risks oversupply and price drops. Geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs could further complicate OPEC+’s plans.
Japan secures 'golden share' in Rapidus to safeguard chip tech, bolster 2nm push
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20250707PD222/rapidus-2nm-government-investment-funding.html
Japan’s government has acquired a “golden share” in Rapidus, a domestic chipmaker, to protect advanced semiconductor technology and support its 2nm chip production goal. This move aims to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers amid global chip shortages and U.S.-China tensions. Rapidus is collaborating with IBM and others to accelerate development, targeting mass production by 2027. The investment strengthens Japan’s position in the global tech supply chain.
Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. They are generally presented chronologically based upon the publication time. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. It must be noted that the articles presented here are presented to develop thought and are not necessarily the thoughts of GeopoliticsUnplugged.com They are presented as interesting thought provoking discussion points. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.