Belarus Election Today: Lukashenka’s Last Stand? The Future of Belarusian Leadership
The Clock is Ticking: Lukashenka and the 2025 Election
(Pictured above: Alexander Lukashenka)
TL;DR
Alexander Lukashenka's Long Rule: Lukashenka has ruled Belarus since 1994, maintaining power through authoritarian practices and electoral manipulation.
Significance of 2025 Election: Scheduled for today, January 26, 2025, this election could mark the end of Lukashenka's rule due to his age (70) and health concerns.
Opposition Challenges: The opposition, led by exiled figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, remains weakened by repression, arrests, and exile, making significant resistance difficult.
Electoral Integrity: Past elections have been marred by allegations of fraud, crackdowns on dissent, and a lack of transparency, and the 2025 election is likely to follow the same pattern.
Health and Succession Speculation: Lukashenka's health has fueled rumors of potential retirement or controlled succession, possibly involving a loyalist or family member.
Geopolitical Stakes: The election's outcome will influence Belarus's alignment with Russia, its relationship with the West, and regional security amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Potential Outcomes: Lukashenka could secure another term, step down, or transfer power to a loyalist or new political structure, with international and domestic implications.
Global Attention: The election will be closely watched by the international community, with potential for heightened sanctions or diplomatic responses if fraud or unrest occurs.
And now the Deep Dive….
Introduction
The political landscape of Belarus has long been dominated by Alexander Lukashenka, who has held the presidency since 1994, making him one of the longest-serving leaders in Europe. His rule has been marked by authoritarian practices, with elections typically criticized for lacking transparency and fairness. The upcoming presidential election, set for today, January 26, 2025, is particularly significant as it could potentially mark the end of Lukashenka's era, given his age and health concerns. Lukashenka, now 70, has not only shaped Belarus's domestic policies but also its foreign alignments, particularly with Russia, which has implications for regional politics and international relations. This election, therefore, is not just about the continuation of leadership but also about the future direction of Belarus in a geopolitically tense environment.
The question of whether this will be Lukashenka's last election is fueled by several factors. Speculation about his health has been rampant, suggesting that physical challenges might force him to reconsider his political longevity. Moreover, the last election in 2020 saw unprecedented protests following allegations of electoral fraud, which led to a severe clampdown on dissent, imprisonment of political opponents, and the exile of key opposition figures like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. These events indicate a populace increasingly frustrated with Lukashenka's iron grip on power. However, Lukashenka has shown no signs of stepping down voluntarily, instead tightening control, suggesting that any transition might be on his terms, possibly through a controlled succession or by establishing a new political framework that keeps him influential.
The international community watches closely as this election could either reinforce Lukashenka's regime or signal a shift. Western nations have consistently criticized the electoral processes in Belarus and have imposed sanctions, while Russia remains a steadfast ally, potentially ready to support Lukashenka or his chosen successor. The outcome of the election will impact not only Belarus's internal governance but also its foreign policy, particularly in relation to Russia and the ongoing tensions with the West over issues like the Ukraine conflict. Whether this election indeed becomes Lukashenka's last will largely depend on his health, the strength and unity of the opposition, and the strategic calculations of both domestic and international players.
Election Date and Background
The date for Belarus's next presidential election has been officially set for today, January 26, 2025. This event marks another chapter in the lengthy tenure of President Alexander Lukashenka, who has ruled the country since 1994. Under his leadership, Belarus has developed a reputation for elections that are widely criticized for lacking transparency and fairness. International observers, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have repeatedly highlighted significant electoral irregularities in past votes, leading to accusations of vote-rigging and suppression of opposition voices. The backdrop of these elections is one of political control, where Lukashenka has managed to maintain a grip on power through a combination of authoritarian practices and the strategic manipulation of the political system.
Historically, each of Lukashenka's elections has been surrounded by controversy. Since his first election in 1994, which was the only one considered somewhat legitimate by international standards, the political landscape has shifted dramatically under his rule. Constitutional referendums have been used to extend his term limits, effectively allowing him to remain in power indefinitely. The 2020 presidential election was notably contentious, with widespread allegations of fraud leading to massive protests across the nation. These protests were met with a harsh crackdown, further entrenching Lukashenka's control but also highlighting the public's discontent with his regime. This pattern of election followed by suppression has set a predictable tone for what might be expected in January 2025.
The historical context of Lukashenka's rule is also marked by his strategic alignment with Russia, which has often been seen as a bulwark against Western criticism and sanctions. This relationship has provided Lukashenka with both political support and economic aid, particularly crucial during times of international isolation. However, this dependency on Russia also complicates the narrative of national sovereignty, with many Belarusians feeling that their country's independence is compromised. As the election date approaches, observers are keen to see how this dynamic might influence the electoral process or the outcome, especially with the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting regional stability.
Looking back at previous elections, one can see a pattern where Lukashenka has not only controlled the electoral process but also shaped the political environment to his advantage. By limiting the registration of opposition parties, jailing or exiling potential rivals, and manipulating media coverage, he has ensured that his candidacy remains unchallenged. The legal framework in Belarus has been tailored to fit his political needs, often through referendums that change constitutional provisions in his favor. This historical manipulation raises questions about the integrity of the electoral process and the potential for genuine political change in the 2025 election.
The international community continues to watch Belarus with cautious eyes. The European Union, the United States, and other Western nations have historically condemned the electoral practices in Belarus, often responding with sanctions aimed at Lukashenka and his close allies. However, the effectiveness of these sanctions in bringing about change has been limited, largely due to Belarus's strategic partnership with Russia, which has often shielded Lukashenka from more severe repercussions. The upcoming election will be a test of how far these international pressures can go in influencing Belarusian politics, especially if there are signs of widespread discontent or protests.
In the lead-up to the election, there has been a noticeable increase in political repression. Reports of arrests, particularly of those associated with political activism or online dissent, have surged, indicating a crackdown aimed at stifling any opposition before it can mobilize. This environment of fear and control might deter many from publicly challenging Lukashenka's rule, setting the stage for another election where the outcome seems predetermined. Yet, the undercurrents of public sentiment, as seen in the 2020 protests, suggest that beneath this controlled surface, there might still be a significant desire for change.
The question of whether this election could be Lukashenka's last is speculative but grounded in his age and the physical toll that leadership might have taken on him. At 70, health concerns have been a topic of speculation, and while Lukashenka has shown no public signs of slowing down, the reality of age and its demands could influence his decision or the decisions made around him. If this election were to be his last, it would not only be a significant moment for Belarus but also for regional politics, potentially opening the door for new power dynamics within the country.
The outcome of the January 26, 2025, election will likely have implications beyond Belarus's borders, affecting how the West interacts with the region, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions. Whether this election will be a mere formality for Lukashenka's continued rule or a turning point towards potential change remains to be seen. The international community, opposition forces, and the Belarusian populace will all play roles in this unfolding drama, where the stakes are nothing less than the future governance of Belarus.
Health and Age Concerns
Persistent rumors and occasional public speculation about Alexander Lukashenka's health have been a recurring theme in Belarusian politics, especially as the presidential election approaches. Over the years, there have been numerous instances where Lukashenka has missed public appearances or seemed to struggle with physical activities, fueling rumors about his wellbeing. In 2023, his absence from several high-profile events, including a Victory Day parade, led to widespread speculation about his health status, with some reports suggesting he was hospitalized. These health concerns could play a critical role in his decision-making regarding whether to run for office again. If his health is indeed failing, it might force him to reconsider his political future, potentially paving the way for a successor or a different power arrangement.
At 70 years old, Lukashenka's age adds another layer of complexity to his political career. The physical and mental demands of being a head of state are considerable, and at an age where many would consider retirement, Lukashenka's continued leadership raises questions about succession and the future of Belarusian politics. His age has brought the issue of political transition into sharp focus, with many wondering if this election could be his last. The dynamics of power in Belarus are closely tied to Lukashenka's personal control, and his departure from the political scene, whether by choice or due to health, would signify a monumental shift in the country's governance.
The issue of succession in Belarus is fraught with uncertainty. Lukashenka has not publicly named a successor, but there has been speculation around his sons, particularly Mikalay, also known as Kolya, who is still very young. This lack of a clear successor plan might suggest Lukashenka's intention to maintain power as long as possible or could indicate ongoing internal deliberations about who might take the helm. His reluctance to step down might also be driven by concerns over maintaining control over his legacy and ensuring that any transition does not lead to a loss of influence for him or his close allies.
Health rumors have not been confined to local gossip; they have also reached international media and observers. Various reports have cited anonymous sources or observed public behavior to infer about Lukashenka's health. For instance, after certain public appearances where he seemed less vigorous, international news outlets have speculated about potential health issues, from heart conditions to general fatigue from years of leadership. This international attention underscores the global interest in Belarus's political stability, especially given its strategic position and alliances.
The health of a leader like Lukashenka, who has maintained an authoritarian grip on power, has significant implications for political stability. If his health were to deteriorate significantly, it could lead to a power vacuum or internal power struggles within the regime. The Belarusian constitution does outline a process for the transfer of power in case of the president's incapacitation or death, but given Lukashenka's control over state institutions, the practical application of these laws might be more chaotic or manipulated than anticipated.
Lukashenka's health also affects the narrative around the election. If he decides to run, his health could become a campaign issue, though in an environment where media is tightly controlled, this might not be as openly discussed as in democracies. Still, the opposition, albeit weakened, might try to leverage any signs of frailty to question his capability to lead. However, this approach comes with risks, as Lukashenka has in the past used health rumors to rally support by portraying himself as indispensable.
The interplay between Lukashenka's health and his political decisions is further complicated by his strategic alliance with Russia. President Vladimir Putin has been a key supporter of Lukashenka, particularly after the 2020 protests, and any signs of Lukashenka’s weakening might prompt Russian involvement in Belarusian politics to ensure stability or to protect Russian interests in the region. This could mean backing a preferred successor or even more direct intervention if the situation destabilizes.
Finally, the topic of Lukashenka's health and age is not just about his personal condition but also about the broader implications for Belarusian and regional politics. The country stands at a crossroads where the health of one man could dictate the political landscape for years to come. Whether Lukashenka steps down, secures another term, or faces a health-related exit from power, the ramifications will be felt far beyond Belarus's borders, influencing everything from regional security to international relations.
Opposition in Belarus
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has emerged as the most prominent figure of the Belarusian opposition, especially after her unexpected candidacy in the 2020 presidential elections. Running when her husband, Sergei Tsikhanouski, was arrested before he could file his candidacy, she galvanized an opposition movement that saw unprecedented public support. Despite the official results declaring Lukashenka the winner, many believed Tsikhanouskaya won the hearts and votes of a significant portion of the electorate. Forced into exile in Lithuania after the election, she has continued to lead the opposition from abroad, advocating for democracy and human rights through various international platforms and forming a shadow government aimed at representing the interests of the Belarusian people.
The current state of the opposition in Belarus is one of significant weakening. Following the 2020 protests, which were the largest in Belarus's post-Soviet history, the regime responded with a brutal crackdown. Thousands were arrested, including key opposition leaders, activists, and journalists. Many have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms under charges like "extremism" or "treason." This repression has not only scattered the opposition but also instilled fear among potential activists, leading to a notable decline in organized opposition activities within Belarus. The physical and psychological toll on the opposition has been immense, with many leaders choosing or being forced into exile to continue their advocacy from safer grounds.
The electoral process in Belarus under Lukashenka's regime is heavily controlled, which directly impacts who can and cannot run as an opposition candidate. Only a handful of opposition figures are allowed to participate, and these are often those deemed least threatening to Lukashenka's hold on power. The process of registering as a candidate involves numerous hurdles like gathering an extensive number of signatures, which the government can easily challenge or reject. In the lead-up to the 2025 election, the Central Election Commission (CEC) has shown a pattern of only approving candidates who align with or do not challenge the current regime significantly. This controlled environment ensures that the elections remain a formality for Lukashenka's continued rule.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has been vocal about the need for international pressure and support to push for free and fair elections in Belarus. Through her United Transitional Cabinet, she has attempted to maintain a semblance of political structure in exile, engaging with foreign governments, NGOs, and international bodies to keep the Belarusian situation in the global spotlight. Her efforts include advocating for sanctions against the regime, support for political prisoners, and international recognition of the Belarusian opposition's legitimacy. Despite her influence abroad, her impact within Belarus is limited by the regime's tight control over information and political discourse.
The opposition's strategy now involves a delicate balance between encouraging domestic resistance without triggering severe repercussions for those still in Belarus. Calls for boycotts or non-recognition of the elections have been part of Tsikhanouskaya's tactics, aiming to delegitimize the process from the outset. Yet, these strategies come with the risk of further alienating or endangering those who remain in the country, as the regime has shown no hesitation in escalating its crackdown when opposition activities rise.
The lack of a strong, unified opposition within Belarus is not just due to repression but also to the strategic dismantling of opposition networks. Lukashenka's administration has effectively used legal, economic, and social pressures to isolate and demoralize opposition supporters. Educational institutions, workplaces, and even families have become battlegrounds where loyalty to the regime is enforced, leaving little room for dissent. This environment has forced the opposition to rely heavily on digital platforms for organization, which are also under constant surveillance and censorship by the state.
The international community's response to the Belarusian opposition's plight has been mixed. While there has been significant moral support, tangible actions like sanctions or diplomatic interventions have varied in intensity and effectiveness. Some countries recognize Tsikhanouskaya as the legitimate leader of Belarus, but this recognition does not translate into significant changes on the ground without concerted international pressure. The opposition's hope lies in changing this dynamic, perhaps through a broader coalition or by leveraging events like the upcoming election to reignite international interest and action.
(Pictured above: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya)
Possibility of Election Cancellation or Manipulation
The possibility of election cancellation or manipulation in Belarus is not just a theoretical concern but is backed by historical precedence. Alexander Lukashenka's tenure has been marked by numerous elections that have been internationally criticized for their lack of transparency and fairness. The 2020 presidential election, where Lukashenka was declared the winner amidst widespread allegations of fraud, led to massive public protests, the largest since Belarus's independence. This history of election manipulation has set a precedent where skepticism about the electoral process's integrity is not only expected but justified. The mechanisms of vote rigging, control over media, and suppression of opposition have been refined over Lukashenka's decades-long rule, making manipulation a plausible strategy to retain power.
The current atmosphere in Belarus ahead of the 2025 election is one of heightened security and increased repression, signaling another tightly controlled electoral process. The government has ramped up arrests and prosecuted individuals for even minor signs of dissent, especially on social media platforms like Telegram. This crackdown aims to mute any potential for the kind of mass mobilization seen in 2020. Security forces are visibly present, and there's an evident strategy to scare the populace into compliance. With the absence of independent election observers, both domestic and international, the stage is set for another election where the outcome is preordained.
Regarding the possibility of canceling the election, the legal framework of Belarus, under its current constitution, mandates that presidential elections occur every five years. However, Lukashenka has previously shown a willingness to manipulate constitutional processes to maintain his grip on power. For instance, in 1996, he held a controversial referendum that altered the constitution to give him more control over the government, effectively extending his term. Although canceling an election outright would be a bold move, Lukashenka has the legal and political machinery in place to delay or manipulate the electoral process under the guise of national emergencies or security concerns.
From a political strategy perspective, if Lukashenka's health or political situation were to deteriorate, he might consider alternatives to outright cancellation. One such strategy could involve transferring power to another body or individual, potentially one of his sons or a loyalist, under the pretext of national stability. This could be facilitated through a reshuffling of constitutional roles or by establishing a new political structure like the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, which could act as a proxy for his continued influence.
The strategy of manipulation over cancellation is also informed by the need to maintain international legitimacy, or at least the appearance of it. Canceling an election outright would likely provoke a strong backlash from the international community, including harsher sanctions and further isolation. By holding elections, even if they are manipulated, Lukashenka can claim some semblance of democratic process, which might mitigate some of the international criticism, especially from countries or entities interested in maintaining diplomatic relations with Belarus.
However, if the political landscape becomes too volatile or if Lukashenka's health fails significantly, he might opt for a more drastic measure. Historical examples show that authoritarian leaders sometimes bypass constitutional norms when their power is threatened, either by realigning political structures or by declaring states of emergency. Such actions would be in line with Lukashenka's past behavior of bending legal frameworks to suit his political needs.
The international reaction to any form of electoral manipulation or cancellation would be critical. Countries and organizations critical of Lukashenka's regime would likely increase pressure through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or support for the opposition. On the other hand, allies like Russia might provide political and possibly military support to ensure stability or to protect their strategic interests in the region, potentially offering Lukashenka a safety net to maneuver through this crisis.
Ultimately, whether Lukashenka opts for cancellation, manipulation, or another form of power retention will depend on a complex interplay of his health, the internal political climate, the strength of the opposition, and international responses. The 2025 election could either be another chapter in Lukashenka's rule or a catalyst for change, depending on how these elements coalesce or clash in the coming months.
Potential Outcomes
If Alexander Lukashenka "wins" the 2025 presidential election, it would mark his seventh term in office, perpetuating his authoritarian rule over Belarus. Given the history of manipulated elections, this outcome is widely anticipated unless there is an unforeseen shift in the political landscape. His continued presidency would mean more of the same: a tightly controlled political atmosphere, suppression of dissent, and a strong alignment with Russia. This would further entrench his style of governance, where democratic processes are mere formalities rather than reflections of public will.
Speculation about succession has been rife, particularly focusing on whether one of Lukashenka's sons might take over. His eldest son, Viktor, has been notably absent from the political spotlight, but there's been talk about his younger son, Nikolai (Kolya), who has occasionally appeared at state functions. However, Lukashenka might not favor direct familial succession due to potential instability or backlash. Instead, he could be grooming a loyalist or considering other political maneuvers. One such scenario involves him transitioning to a different but still influential position, such as chairing the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a body that could ensure his influence persists even if he steps down from the presidency.
The potential for protests similar to those in 2020 exists, especially if there are clear signs of electoral fraud. The memory of those events, which saw millions taking to the streets, remains vivid, and public discontent has not dissipated entirely. However, the response to such protests might be more subdued this time due to the intensified repression that has followed since 2020. The opposition, weakened by arrests and exile, might struggle to mobilize the same level of public action. Still, any significant unrest could challenge the regime, particularly if the international community provides support or if domestic elements within the government or security forces show dissent.
The international response to another Lukashenka victory would likely involve widespread condemnation. Western countries, already critical of Belarus's political practices, might intensify sanctions targeting both Lukashenka and his close allies. Calls for non-recognition of the election results could come from various international bodies, including the European Union and the United Nations. Such responses would aim to delegitimize Lukashenka's rule, though their effectiveness would hinge on the unity and resolve of international actors and their ability to influence or support change within Belarus.
In the event of Lukashenka stepping down or transitioning to another role, the nature of the succession could lead to various outcomes. If a family member or loyalist takes over, it might initially seem like a continuation of current policies. However, any new leader would need to navigate the complexities of maintaining control, potentially facing challenges from within the regime or from external pressures. A less predictable scenario would be if Lukashenka's exit leads to a power vacuum or if different factions within the government vie for control, possibly leading to some form of political upheaval.
The international community's strategy in response to these potential outcomes would be crucial. Support for opposition figures, like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, could be ramped up with more diplomatic recognition, financial aid, or safe havens for activists. There might also be an increase in efforts to support civil society within Belarus, although these initiatives would need to be covert or indirect due to the repressive environment.
If the elections do spark significant unrest, the international reaction would also depend on the scale and nature of the protests. A strong, unified response from democratic nations could include offering asylum to protesters, advocating for human rights, and pressuring for reforms. However, the geopolitical context, particularly the relationship between Belarus and Russia, would complicate these responses, as any move against Belarus would indirectly challenge Russian interests in the region.
Ultimately, the outcome of the election and its aftermath will not only shape Belarus's domestic politics but also affect regional stability and international relations. Whether Lukashenka secures another term, transitions power, or faces a significant challenge to his rule, the ripple effects will be felt across the geopolitical landscape, influencing everything from East-West relations to the internal dynamics of post-Soviet states.
International Implications
The close ties between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka and Russian President Vladimir Putin play a significant role in the international implications of Belarus's upcoming election. Russia has been a primary supporter of Lukashenka's regime, providing economic aid, military support, and political backing, which has been crucial in countering Western sanctions and isolation. The outcome of the election, whether Lukashenka remains in power or a new leader emerges under his shadow, would likely be influenced by Moscow's interests. If Lukashenka secures another term, it would reaffirm his alignment with Russia, potentially leading to further integration within frameworks like the Union State of Russia and Belarus, enhancing Russian influence over Belarusian affairs.
Western nations have historically responded to Belarusian elections with skepticism and criticism, particularly after the 2020 election, which was widely deemed fraudulent. The expectation for 2025 is no different, with continued sanctions likely to be imposed or even intensified if the election is again seen as undemocratic. The European Union, the United States, and other democratic countries have expressed non-recognition of Lukashenka's legitimacy post-2020, and this stance would probably persist or become more pronounced if the electoral process does not meet international standards. These sanctions aim at pressuring the regime economically and diplomatically, targeting individuals and entities supporting Lukashenka's rule.
The alignment of Belarus with Russia has broader implications for regional stability, especially amidst the ongoing tensions involving Ukraine. Belarus has served as a strategic ally for Russia, allowing Russian military presence, including nuclear capabilities, on its soil. This military cooperation could escalate regional security concerns, particularly if Russia uses Belarus as a launchpad for actions against Ukraine or to counter NATO's eastward expansion. The election's outcome might either solidify this military alliance or, if there's a hint of change in Belarusian policy, could lead to a reevaluation of the security dynamics in Eastern Europe.
The international community's response to the election will also depend on how it perceives the democratic integrity of the process. If there are significant protests and signs of repression, this could lead to a stronger international outcry, possibly including moves like recognizing an alternative leadership in exile or taking Belarus to international courts for human rights violations. However, the effectiveness of such responses would be limited by Russia's protective stance towards Belarus, potentially leading to a diplomatic standoff or further geopolitical tension.
In terms of international recognition, any shift in power or policy in Belarus could affect its participation in international forums and agreements. If Lukashenka or his successor continues to steer Belarus towards Russia, this might isolate Belarus from Western-led initiatives like the Eastern Partnership program, which seeks to foster political association and economic integration with the EU. Conversely, any unexpected move towards democratization or neutrality would significantly alter Belarus's international relations, potentially opening doors to Western cooperation and aid.
The Western response might also include bolstering support for Belarusian civil society and opposition movements, both within the country and in exile. This support could manifest through financial aid, training, and diplomatic backing, aiming to empower democratic forces inside Belarus. However, such efforts would need to be carefully managed to avoid direct confrontations with Russia, which has shown it will defend its interests in Belarus through various means, including cyber operations or intelligence activities.
The election's outcome will also impact Belarus's economic relations. With Russia as its main trade partner and energy supplier, any political shift could either deepen this dependency or lead to diversification efforts. If Lukashenka retains power with Russian backing, economic policies would likely continue to favor Russian interests, potentially leading to further economic integration or joint economic ventures. On the other hand, if there's a push for change, Belarus might look westward for economic partnerships, although this would be challenging given the current economic sanctions.
Finally, the stability of Belarus is crucial for the broader geopolitical landscape. The country's position between the EU and Russia makes it a pivotal point for regional security strategies. The election could either maintain the status quo, where Belarus acts as a buffer and ally for Russia, or it could spark a rethinking of security arrangements if there's a significant change in leadership or policy orientation. How the international community, particularly neighboring nations and global powers, react to the election will shape not only Belarus's future but also influence the strategic calculus of Europe's security architecture.
(Pictured above: Nikolai (Kolya) Lukashenka)
Conclusion
The 2025 presidential election in Belarus represents a critical juncture for the nation’s future, encapsulating the tension between entrenched authoritarian rule and a growing desire for change. Alexander Lukashenka’s grip on power remains formidable, backed by decades of political manipulation and steadfast support from Russia. However, questions about his health, public discontent, and international pressure cast a shadow over the stability of his continued rule.
While the outcome appears predictable under the current regime’s control, the implications of this election will extend far beyond its immediate results, influencing Belarus’s domestic politics, regional dynamics, and its relationships with the West and Russia. Whether this election will mark the end of Lukashenka’s reign or serve as another chapter in his authoritarian legacy remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the stakes for Belarus, its people, and the geopolitical landscape are higher than ever.
Sources:
Could Belarus's Presidential Election Be Lukashenka's Last? (2025). Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Retrieved from www.rferl.org/a/could-belarus-presidential-election-be-lukashenkas-last/31669705.html
Temnycky, M. (2025). The 2025 Belarusian presidential elections. New Eastern Europe. Retrieved from neweasterneurope.eu/2025/01/17/the-2025-belarusian-presidential-elections/
Lukashenka’s Hold on Power in Belarus Unclear as Election Season Approaches (2024). Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/lukashenkas-hold-on-power-in-belarus-unclear-as-election-season-approaches/
Belarus sets a Jan. 26 election that's almost certain to extend its authoritarian leader's rule (2024). AP News. Retrieved from apnews.com/article/belarus-election-lukashenko-opposition-7864a405e132f5e2aa9c874454a7963c
'Europe's last dictator': Belarus election set to extend Lukashenko's 30-year rule (2025). Euronews. Retrieved from www.euronews.com/2025/01/24/europes-last-dictator-belarus-election-set-to-extend-lukashenkos-30-year-rule
Alexander Lukashenko: Belarus’ president to stand for re-election in 2025 (2024). CNN. Retrieved from www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/europe/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-election-2025-intl/index.html
Belarus sets presidential election for January, Lukashenko to run again (2024). Euronews. Retrieved from www.euronews.com/2024/10/23/belarus-sets-presidential-election-for-january-lukashenko-to-run-again
Belarus Prepares for a Transitional Election (2025). Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/belarus-prepares-for-a-transitional-election/
Belarus sets a Jan. 26 election that's almost certain to extend its authoritarian leader's rule (2024). AP News. Retrieved from apnews.com/article/belarus-election-lukashenko-opposition-7864a405e132f5e2aa9c874454a7963c
Lukashenka’s Hold on Power in Belarus Unclear as Election Season Approaches (2024). Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/lukashenkas-hold-on-power-in-belarus-unclear-as-election-season-approaches/
Belarus announces date for Lukashenko's next election win (2024). Politico. Retrieved from www.politico.eu/article/belarus-announces-date-lukashenko-next-election-win/
Belarus: A History of Contested Elections (2024). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from carnegieendowment.org/2024/10/24/belarus-history-of-contested-elections-pub-91124
Alexander Lukashenko: Belarus’ president to stand for re-election in 2025 (2024). CNN. Retrieved from www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/europe/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-election-2025-intl/index.html
The 2025 Belarusian presidential elections (2025). New Eastern Europe. Retrieved from neweasterneurope.eu/2025/01/17/the-2025-belarusian-presidential-elections/
Belarus prepares for another tightly controlled presidential election (2025). Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from www.hrw.org/news/2025/01/15/belarus-prepares-another-tightly-controlled-presidential-election
Belarus: Election Watch 2025 Country Report (2024). Freedom House. Retrieved from freedomhouse.org/report/election-watch-2025/belarus
Footage of Belarus President Lukashenko emerge after days of absences that sparked health rumors (2023). PBS News. Retrieved from www.pbs.org/newshour/world/footage-of-belarus-president-lukashenko-emerge-after-days-of-absences-that-sparked-health-rumors
Lukashenko’s Illness: What We Know (2023). The Moscow Times. Retrieved from www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/lukashenkos-illness-what-we-know-a81169
Could Lukashenka's Health Issues Spark a Power Struggle in Belarus? (2023). Eurasia Daily Monitor. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/could-lukashenkas-health-issues-spark-a-power-struggle-in-belarus/
Lukashenko’s Health and the Future of Belarus (2023). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/lukashenkos-health-and-the-future-of-belarus/
Belarus President Lukashenko’s health in spotlight after absence from public view (2023). Reuters. Retrieved from www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-president-lukashenkos-health-spotlight-after-absence-public-view-2023-05-15/
Lukashenko’s Health: Political Implications for Belarus (2023). Carnegie Moscow Center. Retrieved from carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/89586
Lukashenko's Health and Its Impact on Belarusian Politics (2024). Wilson Center. Retrieved from www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/lukashenkos-health-and-its-impact-belarusian-politics
Is Lukashenka’s Health Failing? (2023). Foreign Policy Research Institute. Retrieved from www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/is-lukashenkas-health-failing/
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Exiled Belarusian opposition leader speaks out (2023). CNBC. Retrieved from www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-exiled-belarusian-opposition-leader-speaks-out.html
Belarus opposition leader calls for boycott of tightly controlled election (2024). PBS News. Retrieved from www.pbs.org/newshour/world/belarusian-opposition-leader-calls-for-boycott-of-tightly-controlled-election
The Future of Belarusian Opposition under Lukashenka's Tight Grip (2024). Foreign Policy. Retrieved from foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/25/belarus-opposition-lukashenka-control-election/
Belarusian Opposition Faces Uphill Battle as Election Looms (2025). Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from www.hrw.org/news/2025/01/14/belarusian-opposition-faces-uphill-battle-election-looms
No opposition candidates allowed in Belarus dictator’s “sham” elections (2024). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/no-opposition-candidates-allowed-in-belarus-dictators-sham-elections/
Opposition leader from Belarus gets U.S. help standing up a government in exile (2023). NPR. Retrieved from www.npr.org/2023/12/08/1218100596/opposition-leader-from-belarus-gets-u-s-help-standing-up-a-government-in-exile
Tsikhanouskaya Urges Continued Support for Belarusian Democracy from Exile (2024). Euronews. Retrieved from www.euronews.com/2024/03/12/tsikhanouskaya-urges-continued-support-for-belarusian-democracy-from-exile
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | AP News (2023). AP News. Retrieved from apnews.com/hub/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya
Belarus election: Protests after Lukashenko declared winner (2020). BBC News. Retrieved from www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53708475
Belarus: Election Watch 2025 Country Report (2024). Freedom House. Retrieved from freedomhouse.org/report/election-watch-2025/belarus
Lukashenka’s grip on power in Belarus: A history of constitutional manipulation (2023). Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved from carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/14/lukashenka-s-grip-on-power-in-belarus-history-of-constitutional-manipulation-pub-89994
Could Belarus Cancel Its Presidential Election? (2024). The Moscow Times. Retrieved from www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/04/could-belarus-cancel-its-presidential-election-a82137
Belarus’s 2025 Election: A Foregone Conclusion? (2025). Eurasianet. Retrieved from eurasianet.org/belarus-s-2025-election-a-foregone-conclusion
Lukashenka’s Latest Power Play: The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (2024). Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/lukashenkas-latest-power-play-the-all-belarusian-peoples-assembly/
Opposition in Belarus Faces Uphill Battle Against Election Manipulation (2025). Human Rights Watch. Retrieved from www.hrw.org/news/2025/01/14/opposition-belarus-faces-uphill-battle-against-election-manipulation
Belarus's Election: A Test for Lukashenka's Continued Rule (2025). Al Jazeera. Retrieved from www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/22/belarus-election-a-test-for-lukashenkas-continued-rule
Belarus election: Protests after Lukashenko declared winner (2020). BBC News. Retrieved from www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53708475
Could Lukashenko's Son Be His Successor? (2023). The Moscow Times. Retrieved from www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/11/could-lukashenkos-son-be-his-successor-a80576
Belarus: Lukashenko Gambles on Another Term Amid Protests (2025). Euronews. Retrieved from www.euronews.com/2025/01/24/belarus-lukashenko-gambles-on-another-term-amid-protests
The Future of Belarus After Lukashenko (2024). Foreign Policy. Retrieved from foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/15/the-future-of-belarus-after-lukashenko/
Belarus Election 2025: A Harbinger of Continued Authoritarian Rule? (2025). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/belarus-election-2025-a-harbinger-of-continued-authoritarian-rule/
Lukashenko's Succession Plan: Power Transition in Belarus (2024). Carnegie Moscow Center. Retrieved from carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/91240
International Community Braces for Belarus Election Outcome (2025). Reuters. Retrieved from www.reuters.com/world/europe/international-community-braces-belarus-election-outcome-2025-01-22/
What's Next for Belarus If Lukashenko Steps Down? (2024). Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from jamestown.org/program/whats-next-for-belarus-if-lukashenko-steps-down/