Iran’s Winter Protests: Structural Economic Failure, Regime Signaling, and the Narrow Corridor Between Repression and Collapse
Iran on the Brink? Economic Meltdown Fuels a New Legitimacy Crisis
By Justin James McShane
Executive Summary (Free Preview)
Iran’s winter protests have exploded into the regime’s most serious crisis in years. As of January 2, 2026, the rial’s freefall—now over 1.35 million to the dollar—has ignited nationwide unrest, with traditional regime allies like bazaar merchants defecting and joining chants of “death to the dictator.”
This leaderless, cross-class uprising is far harder to suppress than past waves, forcing Tehran into calibrated repression amid Trump’s warning that the U.S. is “locked and loaded” if protesters are killed. Collapse isn’t imminent, but a slow hollowing of authority—with big risks for energy markets and escalation—now seems probable.
The full dispatch below the paywall breaks it all down: structural economic traps, protest dynamics, regime tactics, deterrence plays, regional angles, and 7–90 day scenarios.
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