Rapid Read: Geopolitical Must-Knows for Today (1 December 2024)
This is my news scan from 30 November 2024 at 0802 Eastern Time until 1 December 2024 at 0745 Eastern Time
Namibia’s Ruling Party on Track to Retain Power, Early Election Results Show
Early election results in Namibia show the SWAPO party likely to retain power, but with a smaller margin than in past elections. The party has been in control since Namibia's independence in 1990. Despite the lead, there's a notable decrease in voter support, possibly indicating public discontent with ongoing issues like unemployment and inequality. The final results are pending, but SWAPO’s dominance appears to continue.
China Carries Out Maiden Rocket Launch From Commercial Site
China has launched a rocket from its newly established commercial spaceport in Hainan, marking a milestone in its space commercialization efforts. The launch signifies China's ambition to expand its private space sector and compete globally in the aerospace industry. The successful test flight from this new site is seen as a step towards more frequent and cost-effective space missions. This development also aims to stimulate local economic growth and innovation in space technology.
China Would Be Taking A Major Risk If It Deployed PMCs To Myanmar To Protect BRI Projects
The U.S. could potentially replicate its strategy in Ukraine against China in Myanmar, where the ongoing conflict has seen the military (Tatmadaw) lose control over half the country since Operation 1027 in October 2023. China, with ties to the "Three Brotherhood Alliance" (3BA) behind the operation, initially supported the offensive to punish the Tatmadaw for various issues, but now faces a dilemma with the U.S. also backing these groups to possibly instigate regime change and disrupt China's Belt and Road Initiative projects. Unconfirmed reports suggest China might deploy Private Military Contractors (PMCs) to safeguard its investments, but this could lead to mission creep, entangling China in a complex conflict with inexperienced PMCs and potentially accelerating U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Such an intervention risks turning into a quagmire, with dangers like increasing U.S. involvement and setting a trap for China similar to what was done to the USSR in Afghanistan.
(JJM comment: This is a great article. I also am looking at the Chinese security situation in Pakistan. Clearly, they are facing fundamental issues there from several different actors. There has been a surge in attacks on Chinese nationals and projects in Pakistan, particularly associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiatives. These attacks are often carried out by separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other militant outfits such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP). All we have to do is look at March 26, 2024 attack for what the future may look like. A suicide car bombing targeted a convoy of Chinese engineers working on the Dasu hydropower project. The attack resulted in the deaths of five Chinese engineers and their Pakistani driver. The bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the bus carrying the engineers, highlighting the ongoing risks to Chinese personnel in Pakistan. That is targeted and about as extreme as you can get, right? We can see on various channels that there are mentions of companies like Dewey Security, China Overseas Security, and Huaxin Zhongshan Security potentially involved in providing security for Chinese workers, especially in sensitive areas like Gwadar Port. Given how important that Gwadar Port is for them. I just dont see them walking away, do you?)
Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale Set to Hit 1 Million Bpd by 2030
Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale field is projected to achieve 1 million barrels per day of oil production by 2030, significantly boosting the country's oil output. Investments in advanced drilling techniques and infrastructure are key to reaching this target. This increase in production could transform Argentina into a major player in the global oil market. The development also promises economic benefits for the region, including job creation and energy self-sufficiency.
Tough Questions about Global Conflict
(JJM comment: Ryan McBeth is a very blunt geopolitical commentator. I enjoy his frank discussions. In this video there are two parts that I really took to the bank. First, he discusses the use of tactical weapons and his theory of its five legitimate battlefield uses. Creating a breakthrough, stopping a breakthrough, destroying underground bunkering, destroying a naval battle group, destroying an amphibious beachhead or forwarding site. finally, he gives a good discussion of the difference between the warrior spirit of the Ukrainians versus the Russian conscripts.
Trump threatens BRICS nations with 100 percent tariff
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/30/trump-brics-tariff-trade-00192042Donald
Trump has proposed a drastic 100 percent tariff on goods from BRICS countries as a leverage tactic. This move is intended to pressure these nations into rethinking their trade policies with the U.S. Critics argue this could lead to significant disruptions in global trade and increase costs for U.S. consumers. Trump's approach reflects his strategy of using tariffs as a tool in international economic negotiations.
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Chinese supply chain expo continues in Beijing
https://www.foreignbrief.com/chinese-supply-chain-expo-continues-in-beijing/
The supply chain expo in Beijing is continuing, highlighting China's efforts to reinforce its role in global trade networks. This is a first ever expo to focus exclusively on the Chinese supply chain. The event showcases innovations in logistics, technology, and sustainability, aiming to strengthen supply chain resilience post-COVID. It also provides a platform for international collaboration in addressing supply chain challenges. The expo underscores China's strategy to lead in the logistics and manufacturing sectors on a global scale.
Trump Demands ‘Commitment’ From BRICS Nations on Using Dollar
Donald Trump has urged BRICS countries to commit to using the U.S. dollar for trade, emphasizing the importance of the dollar's global reserve status. This demand comes amid concerns over de-dollarization efforts by some BRICS members. Trump's call is part of broader U.S. efforts to maintain economic influence through currency dominance. The response from BRICS nations remains to be seen, but it could impact global financial dynamics.
Trump lauds ‘productive’ meeting with Trudeau amid tension over tariffs
https://thehill.com/business/5015901-donald-trump-justin-trudaeu-meeting-productive/
Despite trade tensions, Donald Trump described his meeting with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau as 'productive', focusing on resolving tariff issues. The meeting aimed at smoothing over the strained economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada. Tariffs have been a point of contention, affecting both countries' trade. The leaders expressed optimism about finding common ground to enhance bilateral trade relations.
How GE Vernova plans to deploy small nuclear reactors across the developed world
GE Vernova is planning to deploy small modular reactors (SMRs) in developed countries to meet the growing demand for clean energy. These reactors offer a scalable and less capital-intensive alternative to traditional nuclear plants. The strategy includes partnerships with local utilities and governments to tailor solutions to specific regional needs. This initiative reflects a broader push towards sustainable energy solutions to combat climate change while ensuring energy security.
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Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.