Rapid Read: Geopolitical Must-Knows for Today (14 May 2025)
This is my news scan from 13 May 2025 at 0724 Eastern Time until 14 May 2025 at 0742 Eastern Time
UK-US Trade Deal: A Blueprint for Trump’s Global Trade Gamble?
The UK-US trade deal, signed on May 8, 2025, reduces tariffs on UK steel and cars, aiming to boost exports and counter China’s trade practices. It generates $6 billion in US tariff revenue but risks inflation and supply chain disruptions, with the Federal Reserve projecting 2.8% core PCE inflation for 2025. The deal offers the UK export protections but faces regulatory hurdles in agriculture, while Goldman Sachs predicts only a 0.6% trade boost due to lingering 10% duties on UK goods. Globally, it influences negotiations with China, though fears of a trade war persist with a 45% recession probability if tariffs continue unchecked.
NATO’s Former Head Says Allies Must Counter Russia’s Arctic Rise
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged NATO to strengthen its Arctic presence to counter Russia’s increasing military activities, as stated at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit on May 13, 2025. Russia has been re-arming in the region, opening air bases and investing significantly in Arctic capabilities. Rasmussen highlighted the strategic importance of deterring Russian expansion in this resource-rich area. This call aligns with broader NATO efforts to bolster defenses amid heightened tensions with Russia.
U.S.-China Trade War Pushed Global Supply Chain Near Breaking Point, New Data Shows
The escalating U.S.-China trade war, marked by 145% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports and China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs, has severely strained global supply chains, pushing them close to collapse, according to new data. U.S. efforts to isolate China economically are faltering as allies like Canada and the EU question Washington’s reliability. China’s halt on rare earth exports has further disrupted tech, auto, and defense industries globally. The standoff is reshaping the global economic order, with both nations portraying each other as aggressors.
EU Prepares New Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Shadow Fleet Despite Proposed Zelenskyy-Putin Talks
The EU is set to impose sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to evade oil export restrictions, despite proposed peace talks between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin. These sanctions aim to curb Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts through illicit oil shipments. The move reflects the EU’s commitment to pressuring Russia economically, even as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict gain traction. This dual approach highlights the complex balance between sanctions and diplomacy in addressing Russian aggression.
Uzbekistan and Afghanistan: A New Era of Limited Recognition
https://thediplomat.com/2025/05/uzbekistan-and-afghanistan-a-new-era-of-limited-recognition/
Uzbekistan has initiated a cautious policy of limited recognition toward Afghanistan’s Taliban government, focusing on pragmatic engagement to secure economic and security interests. This shift includes increased trade and infrastructure projects, such as the Trans-Afghan railway, to boost regional connectivity. However, Uzbekistan avoids full diplomatic recognition due to concerns over the Taliban’s governance and human rights record. This approach reflects a broader Central Asian trend of balancing cooperation with caution in dealing with Afghanistan’s new regime.
US Slaps Sanctions on Network Shipping Iranian Oil to China
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on a network of companies and vessels involved in shipping Iranian oil to China, aiming to disrupt Iran’s illicit oil trade and reduce its revenue. These measures target intermediaries that facilitate Iran’s evasion of existing sanctions, tightening economic pressure on Tehran. The sanctions reflect the U.S.’s broader strategy to counter Iran’s regional influence amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This move may strain U.S.-China relations further, given China’s reliance on Iranian oil imports.
How This Coal Company Could Help Break U.S. Dependence on China for Rare Earths
A U.S. coal company is exploring innovative methods to extract rare earth elements from coal byproducts, potentially reducing U.S. reliance on China, which dominates global rare earth supplies. This initiative could bolster domestic production of critical materials used in tech, defense, and renewable energy sectors. The company’s efforts align with U.S. strategic goals to secure supply chains amid the U.S.-China trade war. However, challenges like high costs and environmental concerns may hinder large-scale implementation.
Trump Administration Cutting Tariffs on Small Packages from China
The Trump administration plans to reduce tariffs on small packages from China, aiming to ease costs for U.S. consumers and small businesses reliant on e-commerce. This decision contrasts with the broader U.S.-China trade war, where high tariffs have been imposed on most Chinese imports. The move is seen as a targeted relief effort to address inflation concerns, with the Consumer Price Index projected to rise 0.8% in 2025 due to import costs. Critics argue it may undermine efforts to curb reliance on Chinese goods.
More Than 100 Killed in Jihadi Attack in Northern Burkina Faso
https://apnews.com/article/burkina-faso-jihadi-attack-3770c89aff795dcf5829abd4fc7d04f2
A jihadi attack in northern Burkina Faso killed over 100 people, targeting civilians and security forces in one of the deadliest assaults in the region this year. The attack, attributed to al-Qaeda-linked groups, underscores the escalating violence in the Sahel despite military junta rule. Burkina Faso’s government faces growing pressure to curb insurgencies, with limited success in restoring security. The incident highlights the broader challenge of combating terrorism in West Africa amid political instability.
Nigeria Has a Food Security Problem as Water for Crops Is Harder to Find
Nigeria is grappling with food security challenges as drought and irregular rainfall reduce water availability for agriculture, threatening crop yields. Farmers in northern regions face declining river levels, exacerbating reliance on rain-fed farming. The crisis has driven up food prices, worsening hunger for millions in a country already facing economic strain. Government efforts to improve irrigation infrastructure remain inadequate, leaving farmers vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Syrian President Will Not Attend Arab Summit in Baghdad After Invitation Triggers Divisions
Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa declined to attend the Arab Summit in Baghdad after his invitation sparked controversy among Arab states, reflecting divisions over Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League. The decision follows debates over Syria’s political transition and ongoing sanctions, with some nations wary of normalizing ties. Al-Sharaa’s absence underscores the challenges of unifying Arab positions on Syria’s role in regional politics. The summit will proceed without him, focusing on economic and security cooperation.
Trump Says U.S. Will Remove All Sanctions on Syria
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/trump-says-us-will-remove-all-sanctions-on-syria.html
President Trump announced plans to lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria, aiming to facilitate humanitarian aid and economic recovery in the war-torn nation. The move has sparked debate, with supporters arguing it will alleviate civilian suffering and critics warning it may strengthen the Syrian regime. Trump framed the decision as a step toward regional stability, though details on implementation remain unclear. The policy shift could reshape U.S. engagement in the Middle East, affecting relations with allies and adversaries alike.
Bulgarian President’s Proposal for Euro Referendum Blocked
Bulgaria’s parliament rejected President Rumen Radev’s proposal for a referendum on adopting the euro, citing legal and procedural issues. The decision delays Bulgaria’s path to joining the eurozone, a goal supported by the government but opposed by some nationalist factions. Critics of the referendum argued it could fuel public skepticism and hinder EU integration efforts. The block reflects ongoing political tensions in Bulgaria over economic and European policy directions.
Trump Extends ‘Olive Branch’ to Iran With Stern Warning
President Trump offered Iran a chance for improved relations, proposing an “olive branch” to negotiate a new deal, but warned of severe consequences for non-compliance. The statement follows heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, including new sanctions on Iranian oil networks. Trump’s approach seeks to balance diplomacy with pressure, aiming to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence. The mixed messaging has left analysts uncertain about the likelihood of meaningful talks.
The Taliban’s Role in the Fragile Ceasefire Between India and Pakistan
The Taliban has unexpectedly emerged as a mediator in the fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan, leveraging its influence in Afghanistan to facilitate backchannel talks. Both nations, locked in a tense standoff over Kashmir, have cautiously welcomed the Taliban’s role due to its regional clout. The ceasefire remains precarious, with ongoing violations and distrust threatening its collapse. The Taliban’s involvement highlights its growing diplomatic ambitions, though its motives and long-term impact remain under scrutiny.
China’s Steel Exports Surge, Impacting ASEAN Markets
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Chinas-Steel-Exports-Surge-Impacting-ASEAN-Markets.html
China’s steel exports have surged in 2025, flooding ASEAN markets and driving down prices, which threatens local steel industries in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. The increase stems from China’s overcapacity and weakened domestic demand, prompting aggressive export strategies. ASEAN nations are considering protective tariffs to shield their markets, risking trade tensions with China. The situation underscores broader challenges in balancing trade relations amid global economic shifts.
US Plans to Grant Saudi Arabia More Access to AI Chips | Bloomberg Technology
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-05-13/bloomberg-technology-05-13-2025-video
The U.S. is planning to expand Saudi Arabia’s access to AI chips, part of a broader strategy to strengthen tech ties during President Trump’s Middle East visit. This move aims to counter China’s influence in the region’s tech sector while boosting U.S. companies like Nvidia. Concerns linger over potential misuse of advanced technology and its implications for regional security. The decision reflects a delicate balance of economic and geopolitical priorities in U.S.-Saudi relations.
Bolivia President Arce Declines Candidacy, Calls for Left-Wing Unity
Bolivian President Luis Arce announced he will not seek re-election, urging left-wing factions to unite behind a single candidate to counter right-wing opposition in the 2025 elections. His decision follows economic challenges and internal divisions within the ruling MAS party. Arce’s call for unity aims to preserve Bolivia’s socialist policies amid growing political polarization. The move could reshape the country’s political landscape as the election approaches.
Why France and Italy Are Sparring Over the EU’s Loans-for-Arms Scheme
https://www.ft.com/content/c34026ab-14bb-44ca-8eee-cfb9a36760cc
France and Italy are clashing over the EU’s proposed loans-for-arms scheme, which aims to fund military support for Ukraine through joint borrowing. France supports the initiative to bolster EU defense autonomy, while Italy, wary of increased debt, favors alternative funding mechanisms. The dispute highlights broader tensions within the EU over fiscal policy and defense priorities. Resolution is critical as the EU seeks to maintain unity in supporting Ukraine against Russia.
China Clears Rare Earth Exports for 5 Firms in Strategic Nod to Europe, Vietnam
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20250514VL206/rare-earth-europe-beijing-materials-volkswagen.html
China has approved rare earth exports for five companies, targeting Europe and Vietnam, in a strategic move to strengthen trade ties amid the U.S.-China trade war. The decision aims to secure markets for China’s critical materials, vital for tech and automotive industries, including firms like Volkswagen. By selectively easing export restrictions, China seeks to counter U.S. efforts to reduce global reliance on its rare earths. The move could reshape supply chain dynamics in key industries.
Trump’s Mideast Visit Opens Floodgate of AI Deals Led by Nvidia
President Trump’s Middle East visit has catalyzed a wave of AI-related deals, with Nvidia leading partnerships to expand AI infrastructure in the region. The agreements, involving companies like AMD and Humain, aim to position the Middle East as a tech hub, countering China’s influence. These deals include investments in AI chip production and data centers, boosting U.S. tech exports. However, concerns over technology transfer and regional stability persist amid the rapid tech push.
Goldman: Trump Wants Oil Prices in the $40-50 Range
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Trump-Wants-Oil-Prices-in-the-40-50-Range.html
Goldman Sachs reports that President Trump is pushing for oil prices to stabilize between $40-50 per barrel to support U.S. consumers and economic growth. This target involves pressuring OPEC+ to increase production and easing sanctions on oil-producing nations like Syria. Lower oil prices could reduce inflation but risk straining U.S. shale producers, who require higher prices for profitability. The strategy reflects Trump’s focus on energy affordability amid global market volatility.
Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. It must be noted that the articles presented here are presented to develop thought and are not necessarily the thoughts of GeopoliticsUnplugged.com They are presented as interesting thought provoking discussion points. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.r