Rapid Read: Geopolitical Must-Knows for Today (11 April 2025)
This is my news scan from 10 April 2025 at 0719 Eastern Time until 11 April 2025 at 0822 Eastern Time
SWIFT’s Legacy Meets CIPS’s Ambition: A New Financial Era
https://geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/p/swifts-legacy-meets-cipss-ambition
The article explores China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as a potential rival to the SWIFT network, highlighting its ambition to create a multipolar financial world. CIPS aims to reduce reliance on Western-dominated systems, offering an alternative for international transactions, especially for countries facing sanctions. While SWIFT remains dominant, CIPS’s growth reflects China’s strategic push for financial independence and influence. The piece suggests this shift could reshape global trade dynamics, though challenges like adoption and infrastructure remain.
Want to cut your trade surplus with Trump? Crude, LNG and coal can help – a bit: Russell
This article discusses how China could reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. by increasing exports of crude oil, LNG, and coal, amid pressure from Trump’s trade policies. These energy exports could help balance trade but are limited by logistical and market constraints. The piece notes that while such measures might ease tensions, they’re unlikely to fully resolve the broader trade disputes. It emphasizes the complex interplay of energy markets and geopolitics in U.S.-China relations.
Abu Dhabi steps up US gas investment over hopes of industry boom
https://www.ft.com/content/b4ffcddc-123c-4123-8815-0323992f1ad8
Abu Dhabi is ramping up investments in U.S. natural gas projects, betting on a booming industry driven by global demand. The emirate’s state-owned energy firms are targeting shale gas and LNG infrastructure to capitalize on favorable market conditions. This move aligns with expectations of relaxed regulations under the current U.S. administration, boosting production prospects. However, the article highlights risks like price volatility and environmental concerns that could challenge these ambitions.
Hassett Says US ‘Well Advanced’ in Trade Talks, 15 Offers on Table
Kevin Hassett, a U.S. trade advisor, claims the U.S. is making significant progress in trade negotiations, with 15 offers under consideration from various countries. The talks aim to secure favorable deals amid Trump’s push for reduced trade deficits and stronger domestic industries. While details on specific nations or terms remain sparse, the discussions signal a proactive approach to reshaping global trade relationships. The article notes optimism but cautions that complex negotiations could face hurdles.
EU putting tariff countermeasures on hold for 90 days after Trump pause
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5242109-european-union-90-day-tariff-pause/
The European Union has suspended planned tariff countermeasures for 90 days following a U.S. decision to pause certain trade actions under Trump’s administration. This temporary truce aims to de-escalate tensions and provide a window for renewed trade talks. The move reflects cautious optimism for resolving disputes, particularly over agricultural and industrial goods. However, the article suggests that underlying issues, like steel and aluminum tariffs, may complicate long-term agreements.
Oil in the Trade War
The article examines oil’s role in escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, noting its strategic importance in global markets. U.S. sanctions and tariffs aim to curb China’s energy imports, while China seeks alternative suppliers to reduce dependency. This dynamic could disrupt supply chains and influence oil prices worldwide. The piece underscores that energy remains a critical leverage point in broader geopolitical strategies.
Tanzanian prominent opposition leader charged with treason after calling for electoral reforms
Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu faces treason charges after advocating for electoral reforms, raising concerns about political repression. His arrest follows protests by his CHADEMA party against the government’s handling of elections. The charges, which carry severe penalties, have sparked domestic and international criticism of Tanzania’s democratic backsliding. The article highlights fears that such actions could escalate tensions ahead of future polls.
Turkey’s Erdogan meets pro-Kurdish politicians as they seek to end a 40-year conflict
https://apnews.com/article/kurdish-peace-erdogan-onder-buldan-pkk-0037f67d2cdcbd18ba382ba76a0108fb
Turkish President Erdogan met with pro-Kurdish politicians to discuss ending the decades-long conflict with the PKK, a militant Kurdish group. The talks signal a potential shift toward dialogue after years of violence and stalled peace efforts. Both sides expressed cautious hope, but deep mistrust and political complexities pose significant challenges. The article notes that any progress could reshape Turkey’s domestic and regional dynamics.
Overproducing Kazakhstan Discusses Oil Output Cuts With Firms
Kazakhstan is negotiating with oil companies to reduce production after exceeding OPEC+ quotas, aiming to stabilize global markets. The overproduction has strained relations with the alliance, prompting calls for compliance. Discussions focus on adjusting output from major fields like Tengiz to align with agreed limits. The article suggests that Kazakhstan’s actions could influence oil prices and its standing within OPEC+.
US will no longer require green analyses on Western states’ oil, gas leases
The U.S. has eliminated mandatory environmental impact assessments for oil and gas leases in Western states, streamlining energy development. The decision, backed by the Trump administration, aims to boost domestic production by reducing regulatory hurdles. Critics warn it could harm ecosystems and exacerbate climate issues, while supporters argue it strengthens energy independence. The article notes this shift aligns with broader deregulatory trends in the sector.
US natgas output and demand to hit record highs in 2025, EIA says
https://boereport.com/2025/04/10/us-natgas-output-and-demand-to-hit-record-highs-in-2025-eia-says-3/
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts record-high natural gas production and consumption in 2025, driven by robust exports and domestic needs. Shale gas regions like Appalachia and Permian are expected to fuel the surge. Rising LNG exports to Asia and Europe will further strain supply, potentially impacting prices. The article highlights the U.S.’s growing role as a global energy leader amid these trends.
Australia Pilots Novel Wave Energy Converter
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Australia-Pilots-Novel-Wave-Energy-Converter.html
Australia is testing a new wave energy converter to harness ocean power, aiming to diversify its renewable energy portfolio. The technology captures wave motion to generate electricity, with potential for scalable coastal applications. Early trials show promise, but high costs and technical challenges remain barriers to widespread adoption. The article frames this as part of Australia’s push toward sustainable energy innovation.
Trump Weighs Measures to Bring Farm Workers Back to US Legally
Trump is considering policies to legally reintroduce farm workers to the U.S., addressing agricultural labor shortages. The measures aim to balance immigration enforcement with the needs of farmers reliant on seasonal workers. Proposals include streamlining visa programs, though details remain under discussion. The article notes potential political pushback from both immigration hardliners and labor advocates.
Trump Signs Order to Protect Big Oil From State Emissions Fines
Trump has signed an executive order shielding oil companies from state-level emissions fines, prioritizing industry growth. The move targets states with strict environmental regulations, aiming to lower compliance costs for producers. Critics argue it undermines climate efforts, while supporters see it as vital for energy security. The article suggests this could escalate federal-state tensions over environmental policy.
Judge Lets Trump Move Ahead With Immigrant Registry Rule
A judge has permitted Trump to implement an immigrant registry rule, advancing his immigration agenda. The policy requires tracking certain non-citizens, raising concerns about privacy and potential deportations. Proponents claim it enhances national security, while opponents fear it targets vulnerable communities. The article notes the ruling could face further legal challenges as implementation begins.
Venezuela national assembly greenlights economic emergency decree
https://boereport.com/2025/04/10/venezuela-national-assembly-greenlights-economic-emergency-decree/
Venezuela’s National Assembly has approved an economic emergency decree to address the country’s ongoing crisis, granting the government broader powers. The measure aims to stabilize markets and curb inflation but risks further centralizing control. Critics doubt its effectiveness, citing past failures and corruption. The article frames this as a desperate attempt to manage a collapsing economy.
General strike against President Milei’s austerity disrupts Argentina
A general strike in Argentina has paralyzed the country, protesting President Milei’s harsh austerity measures to curb inflation. Workers and unions demand relief as cuts to subsidies and jobs deepen economic hardship. The government defends the policies as necessary for fiscal recovery, but public unrest is growing. The article highlights the strike’s scale and its challenge to Milei’s reform agenda.
Nuclear’s Back—but Uranium Supply Isn’t
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Nuclears-Backbut-Uranium-Supply-Isnt.html
The global push for nuclear energy is surging, but uranium supply shortages threaten to hinder progress. Demand is rising as countries seek low-carbon power, yet mining and processing lag due to underinvestment. Prices are climbing, and geopolitical tensions could further disrupt access to key producers. The article warns that without rapid supply chain fixes, nuclear’s revival may stall.
US targets China oil storage terminal in new Iran-related sanctions
The U.S. has imposed sanctions on a Chinese oil storage terminal linked to Iran’s petroleum trade, aiming to curb Tehran’s revenue. The measures target entities facilitating Iran’s evasion of existing restrictions, escalating pressure on China’s involvement. Beijing has protested, calling the sanctions unilateral and disruptive to global markets. The article notes this could strain U.S.-China relations amid broader trade conflicts.
Why Trump’s Dream of Made-in-the-USA iPhones Isn’t Going to Happen
Trump’s vision of manufacturing iPhones entirely in the U.S. faces steep obstacles, including high labor costs and complex global supply chains. Apple relies heavily on Asian factories for efficiency, and relocating would spike prices and disrupt production. Even with tariffs, companies are more likely to diversify away from China than fully reshore. The article argues that economic realities make the plan unfeasible in the near term.
What challenges still lie ahead for TSMC?
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20250411PD206/tsmc-us-china-trade-war-usa-government.html
TSMC, the world’s leading chipmaker, faces mounting challenges from the U.S.-China trade war, including export controls and geopolitical risks. Its U.S. expansion is hampered by higher costs and skilled labor shortages compared to Taiwan. Rising global demand for AI chips adds pressure to scale production amid supply chain disruptions. The article suggests TSMC must navigate these hurdles to maintain its dominance.
$50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-11/oil-slump-risks-breaking-best-us-deficit-tool
Low oil prices around $50 a barrel could widen the U.S. trade deficit by reducing the value of energy exports. The U.S. has relied on shale oil and gas to narrow the gap, but cheaper crude undercuts this advantage. Imports of manufactured goods, especially from China, would become relatively costlier, exacerbating imbalances. The article warns that prolonged low prices could undo recent trade gains.
Trump's China tariffs to hit 145% as 75 countries get temporary relief
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20250411PD213/tariffs-china-inventory-market-2025.html
Trump’s administration plans to impose tariffs up to 145% on Chinese goods, intensifying the trade war, while granting temporary relief to 75 other countries. The steep tariffs aim to protect U.S. industries but risk disrupting supply chains and raising consumer prices. China is expected to retaliate, potentially targeting American exports like agriculture. The article highlights the uneven global impact of this aggressive trade strategy.
China strikes back with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods as trade war intensifies
China has retaliated against U.S. tariffs with 125% duties on American goods, effective April 12, escalating the trade war. The tariffs target U.S. agricultural products, autos, and tech, aiming to pressure Trump’s policies. Both sides face rising economic costs, with global markets bracing for supply chain disruptions. The article underscores the tit-for-tat dynamic threatening bilateral trade stability.
Panama rejects Pentagon chief's idea of US bases on its soil
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2025/04/mil-250410-presstv07.htm
Panama has rejected a U.S. proposal to establish military bases on its territory, prioritizing sovereignty. The idea, floated by the Pentagon, aimed to counter regional security threats but faced immediate pushback. Panama’s stance reflects growing wariness of foreign military presence in Latin America. The article notes this could complicate U.S. strategic plans in the region.
US & Panama Sign Deal on Free Passage of US Warships Through Panama Canal - Hegseth
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2025/04/mil-250410-sputnik01.htm
The U.S. and Panama have signed an agreement ensuring free passage for U.S. warships through the Panama Canal, per U.S. official Hegseth. The deal strengthens U.S. naval mobility in a critical global chokepoint amid rising tensions. Panama’s government frames it as a neutral arrangement to maintain canal operations. The article suggests the agreement could spark debate over Panama’s autonomy.
India Wants a US Trade Deal With an ‘Urgency’ Not Seen Before
India is pushing for a comprehensive trade deal with the U.S., driven by an unprecedented sense of urgency to boost economic ties. The initiative seeks to reduce tariffs, open markets, and counter China’s regional influence. Both nations face challenges like agricultural subsidies and intellectual property disputes that could slow progress. The article highlights India’s strategic pivot toward stronger Western partnerships.
Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. It must be noted that the articles presented here are presented to develop thought and are not necessarily the thoughts of GeopoliticsUnplugged.com They are presented as interesting thought provoking discussion points. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.