Rapid Read: Geopolitical Must-Knows for Today (13 September 2025)
This is my news scan from 12 September 2025 at 0700 Eastern Time until 13 September 2025 at 0800 Eastern Time
Executive Summary:
The United States is aggressively pushing G7 allies to impose up to 100% tariffs on China and India's purchases of Russian oil while proposing the seizure of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defense, amid President Trump's threats of broader economic sanctions on entities supporting Russia's military, as part of intensified efforts to curtail Russian energy revenues fueling the Ukraine war.
Global energy markets face a looming oil glut projected at 1.9 million barrels per day next year due to OPEC+ output hikes despite China's stockpiling of 500,000 barrels daily, while the European Union could accelerate its phase-out of Russian gas imports—currently at 13% of supply—within six to twelve months by shifting to U.S. LNG, potentially dropping oil prices to the low $50s per barrel and reshaping trade dynamics.
Political instability grips South Asia with Nepal's former Chief Justice Sushila Karki sworn in as the country's first female interim prime minister following deadly unrest that dissolved parliament and scheduled elections for March, alongside Thailand's persistent southern insurgency since 2004 that has claimed over 7,700 lives and shows no signs of resolution despite peace talks.
China's advancements in reusable rockets, orbital refueling, and lunar base plans by 2035 are transforming global space power with implications for resource access and military security, coinciding with a slowdown in worldwide EV sales growth to 15% in August—driven by a mere 6% rise in China—amid uncertainties over expiring U.S. tax credits and scaling back production by major automakers.
The European Union and India are in intense negotiations for a comprehensive free trade agreement to bolster economic ties beyond U.S. tariffs, while the second B-21 Raider stealth bomber's first flight advances America's long-term aerial dominance, and Russia-Belarus Zapad-2025 drills involving 7,000-8,000 troops and nuclear simulations heighten NATO tensions despite no immediate threat.
Detailed News Summary
EU could quit Russian gas within a year, US energy chief says https://boereport.com/2025/09/12/eu-could-quit-russian-gas-within-a-year-us-energy-chief-says/ The U.S. energy secretary, Chris Wright, stated that the European Union could phase out Russian gas within six to twelve months by replacing it with U.S. liquefied natural gas, a position he communicated during a meeting in Brussels with EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen. Wright advocated for an even faster elimination than the EU's current target of ending Russian oil and gas imports by January 2028, with short-term contract bans beginning next year. The EU still imports about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, down from 45% before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but this revenue is viewed as prolonging the war. Challenges include the need for unanimous approval from all 27 EU members for new sanctions, with opposition from Hungary and Slovakia contributing to the extended timeline.
Thailand’s Southern Insurgency: A Conflict Fated to Last? https://thediplomat.com/2025/09/thailands-southern-insurgency-a-conflict-fated-to-last/ Thailand's southern insurgency, active since 2004 in Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces, has caused over 7,700 deaths and persists through attacks on civilians including monks, children, and seniors, despite military operations, peace negotiations, and development initiatives. The Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the primary insurgent group, has intensified assaults on local defense volunteers and extended activities outside the Deep South, with explosives discovered in tourist spots like Phuket in June, potentially linked to the Patani United Liberation Organization. Rooted in ethno-nationalist grievances from the early 20th century and the 1909 Anglo-Siamese Treaty, the conflict sustains economic and political benefits for Thailand's security apparatus and allows the BRN to build a "shadow state" in educational and religious institutions. Peace processes falter due to inconsistent dialogue, inadequate strategies, and the government's security-focused approach over addressing the insurgency's political demands, with recommendations for counter-radicalization, financial disruption, and a population-oriented strategy.
Analysis: Discover how the first flight of the second B-21 Raider will shape America’s stealth bomber force for decades http://worlddefencenews.blogspot.com/2025/09/analysis-discover-how-first-flight-of.html The article discusses the implications of the second B-21 Raider stealth bomber's inaugural flight, marking a significant milestone in enhancing the U.S. Air Force's long-range strike capabilities for future decades. This development builds on the successful first flight of the initial prototype, demonstrating progress in low-observable technology and integration of advanced avionics. The B-21 program aims to replace aging B-1 and B-2 bombers, with plans for at least 100 aircraft to ensure strategic deterrence against evolving global threats. Overall, the flight underscores Northrop Grumman's commitment to delivering a versatile platform that will maintain America's aerial superiority through mid-century.
Global EV Sales Growth Slows as Chinese Surge Cools https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-EV-Sales-Growth-Slows-as-Chinese-Surge-Cools.html Global electric vehicle sales rose by 15% in August year-over-year, decelerating from 27% growth in the prior seven months, largely due to China's market expanding only 6% after last year's boost from an auto trade-in program. August's total reached 1.7 million units, including 1.16 million battery electric vehicles and 570,000 plug-in hybrids, with the U.S. achieving a record 175,000 units amid looming tax credit expirations in September. Europe's sales remain supported by emissions regulations in countries like Germany and the UK, sustaining demand despite the global slowdown. Future prospects show uncertainty in North America from the fourth quarter, prompting automakers such as Volkswagen and General Motors to reduce EV production plans.
China's Oil Buying Spree Won't Stop Coming Glut https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Spree-Wont-Stop-Coming-Glut.html China's aggressive crude oil stockpiling, motivated by low prices and energy security concerns, is forecasted by Goldman Sachs to increase inventories by 500,000 barrels per day across the next five quarters. Imports have surged since March-April mainly for storage rather than heightened demand, yet this activity will fail to avert a substantial oil surplus. Analysts project a 1.9 million barrels per day glut next year driven by OPEC+ production increases, potentially pushing oil prices down to the low $50s per barrel. Inventory estimates for China are derived from supply and refinery data, as the nation does not disclose official storage figures.
European Union, India in ‘Intense’ Talks to Clinch Trade Deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-12/european-union-india-in-intense-talks-to-clinch-trade-deal India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announced that the European Union and India are conducting intense negotiations to secure a free trade agreement, as highlighted at an industry event in New Delhi. This initiative forms part of India's broader push to diversify trade partnerships amid U.S. tariff pressures. Goyal stressed the mutual sincerity and dedication of both sides toward crafting a balanced and comprehensive deal. The talks emphasize the strategic value of deepening economic connections between the EU and India.
Nepal’s Ex-Chief Justice Sworn In as Interim PM After Unrest https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-12/nepal-s-ex-chief-justice-named-interim-pm-after-deadly-unrest Sushila Karki, Nepal's former Supreme Court Chief Justice, was inaugurated as interim prime minister in the wake of deadly unrest that dismantled the nation's top leadership. As Nepal's first female prime minister, she took the oath administered by President Ram Chandra Poudel. Parliament's dissolution followed her appointment, paving the way for elections on March 5. This shift occurs against a backdrop of profound political turmoil in the Himalayan country.
How China Is Transforming Space Power https://thediplomat.com/2025/09/how-china-is-transforming-space-power/ China's space endeavors are progressing with innovations in reusable rockets like the Yuanxingzhe-1 tested in May 2025, geosynchronous orbital refueling via Shijian-21 and Shijian-25, and ambitions for a permanent lunar base by 2035 powered by nuclear reactors. The program extends to orbital logistics, lunar industrialization, and resource exploitation, including the Chang’e 7 mission in 2026 to probe water ice at the Moon's South Pole and advancements in asteroid defense. These initiatives seek to secure China's foothold in Earth orbit, cislunar space, and lunar territories. By bolstering capabilities in communications, resources, science, planetary protection, and military domains, China aims to redefine global space influence across civilian, commercial, and defense arenas.
USA Urges G7 Sanctions on Russian Oil https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_urges_g7_sanctions_on_russian_oil-12-sep-2025-181784-article/?rss=true The United States is advocating for the G7 to levy tariffs up to 100% on China and India's Russian oil imports to compel President Vladimir Putin to cease the Ukraine conflict. The strategy also involves establishing a mechanism to confiscate approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, predominantly in Europe, for Ukraine's military support, alongside secondary tariffs and restrictions to stem Russian energy exports. President Trump has warned of expanded sanctions targeting banks, oil sectors, and Russia's shadow tanker fleet, as well as Rosneft and military backers, despite resistance from EU members like Hungary. G7 finance ministers convened to explore additional anti-Russia actions, highlighting ongoing efforts to isolate Moscow economically.
Russia and Belarus Launch Major Military Drills https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Russia-and-Belarus-Launch-Major-Military-Drills.html Russia and Belarus initiated the Zapad-2025 exercises on September 12, simulating adversary incursions and incorporating nuclear weapon scenarios, scheduled to run until September 16 with 7,000-8,000 troops mainly in Belarus. The drills serve to project Russia's military prowess amid the Ukraine war's reported toll of over 1 million casualties, drawing scrutiny from NATO and neighbors over historical lack of transparency and aggressive tactics. Belarus is exploring Western de-escalation through prisoner releases and dialogues with U.S. President Donald Trump, potentially softening its alignment. Although NATO assesses no imminent danger, the exercises offer insights into Moscow's envisioned NATO confrontation strategies, echoing past simulations of nuclear attacks.
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Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. They are generally presented chronologically based upon the publication time. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. It must be noted that the articles presented here are presented to develop thought and are not necessarily the thoughts of GeopoliticsUnplugged.com They are presented as interesting thought provoking discussion points. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.