The Intricate Web of Yemen, Houthis, Israel, and the US: A 2025 Perspective
Red Sea Showdown: Houthis, Israel, and the U.S. in Geopolitical Turmoil
TL;DR:
Geopolitical Context: The Houthis, an Iran-backed group, have intensified military activities targeting Israel and disrupting Red Sea shipping. Actions tied to solidarity with the Palestinian cause amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Houthi Strategies and Impact: Missile and drone strikes on Israel, including the city of Eilat. Maritime disruptions: seizures of ships and attacks on Red Sea trade routes. Bolstered by Iranian support (weapons, training) and strategic alliances.
Israel’s Response: Retaliatory airstrikes on Houthi military targets in Yemen, disrupting key operations. Strategic shift to counter threats from groups like Houthis alongside Hamas and Hezbollah. Efforts to form an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping lanes.
U.S. Role: Operation Prosperity Guardian ensures safe shipping through the Red Sea. Precision strikes (e.g., B-2 bombers) target Houthi infrastructure. Balancing military deterrence with diplomatic efforts for peace.
Challenges to Resolution: Houthi resilience and regional alliances complicate peace talks. Fragmented Yemeni governance limits efforts to unify and stabilize the nation. Broader geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iranian influence, Saudi-Yemeni tensions) prolong instability.
Future Prospects: Continued Houthi attacks likely without significant diplomatic breakthroughs. Invasion unlikely. Long-term stability requires comprehensive rebuilding of Yemen and regional cooperation.
(Pictured above: Yemeni rebels demonstrate in the suburbs of the Houthi-controlled capital Sana'a, on December 23, 2024. (Photo by Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP))
And Now For the Deep Dive….
The Houthi Factor: Shaping the Future of Middle Eastern Diplomacy
Introduction
In early 2025, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East continues to be shaped by the complex interactions between Yemen, the Houthi movement, Israel, and the United States. This intricate web of relationships is primarily centered around the ongoing conflict in Yemen, where the Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group, have escalated their military activities, not just within Yemen but also extending their reach towards Israel. The Houthis, controlling vast swathes of Yemen including the capital Sanaa, have declared their solidarity with the Palestinian cause, actively engaging in missile and drone attacks against Israel. This has led to a significant increase in regional tensions, with the potential to widen the scope of the Israel-Hamas conflict into a broader regional confrontation.
The Houthis' involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict has been particularly pronounced since the outbreak of hostilities in October 2023. Their actions, including the seizure of commercial ships in the Red Sea and direct missile strikes on Israel, have been justified by the group as support for the Palestinians in Gaza amidst what they describe as Israel's aggressive actions. These moves have not only strained Yemen's internal peace process but have also put pressure on regional powers and international actors, particularly the United States, which is a staunch ally of Israel. The US has responded by conducting airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, aiming to deter the group from further attacks on international shipping and Israeli territory, thereby escalating the situation further.
The relationship between Israel and the Houthis is fundamentally antagonistic, with Israel considering the Houthis as a part of the broader "Axis of Resistance" supported by Iran, aimed against Israel's interests. Israel has been countering Houthi threats with its advanced missile defense systems and retaliatory strikes, signaling a shift in its strategic focus from traditional foes like Hamas and Hezbollah towards new challenges posed by the Houthis and their Iranian backers. This shift has been notably highlighted in recent strategic assessments by Israeli defense analysts, indicating a broader and more intense military campaign against the Houthis in the coming months.
From the United States' perspective, the situation in Yemen with the Houthis represents both a strategic and humanitarian challenge. On one hand, the US has been involved in supporting Saudi Arabia's efforts against the Houthis, which ties into broader geopolitical strategies to counter Iranian influence in the region. On the other hand, the US is keen on avoiding a full-scale regional war, which could disrupt global trade routes, especially through the Red Sea, a critical artery for international shipping. The US has therefore been walking a tightrope, engaging in military actions against Houthi targets while also trying to foster diplomatic solutions that could lead to a ceasefire and humanitarian aid distribution in Yemen.
The US's military actions against the Houthis have met with mixed reactions across the Middle East. Countries like Saudi Arabia, which has been in a de facto truce with the Houthis to potentially exit the long-standing Yemeni conflict, are now seeing these actions with caution, fearing a resurgence of hostilities. Meanwhile, other Arab states are reluctant to publicly denounce the Houthis due to domestic pressures and solidarity with Palestinian causes, which complicates the US's strategy to isolate the group. Public opinion in many Arab countries sees the US and Israel's actions as part of an aggressive policy that might not serve regional peace.
The Houthis, for their part, have leveraged these tensions to their advantage, portraying themselves as champions of the Palestinian cause, which has somewhat bolstered their domestic support within Yemen. This positioning has made peace negotiations more challenging, as the group demands a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the blockade as preconditions for halting their maritime attacks. The Houthis' narrative of resistance against foreign intervention resonates with some Yemeni factions, making the internal dynamics of Yemen even more volatile and unpredictable.
Internationally, the situation has also highlighted the limitations of current diplomatic efforts. The United Nations, through its special envoy for Yemen, has called for restraint and dialogue, but the escalating military actions indicate that peace is elusive. The involvement of multiple international actors, with differing interests and alliances, has turned Yemen into a microcosm of larger Middle Eastern tensions, where every action by one party influences the strategies of others, often leading to an unintended escalation.
As we move through 2025, the relations between Yemen, the Houthis, Israel, and the US are emblematic of the broader geopolitical chess game in the Middle East. The stakes are high, with implications for regional stability, global trade, and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The path forward remains uncertain, with each move by these key players potentially reshaping the regional power dynamics in ways that could either usher in a new era of conflict or, conversely, pave the way towards a fragile peace. We dive deeply into this now.
(Pictured above: Houthi fighters and followers demonstrate in support of Palestinians, and the Houthi strikes in the Red Sea, in Sanaa, Yemen, on Feb. 4. Photographer: Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)
Yemen: A Failed State
Yemen, once known for its rich history and cultural depth, now stands as a stark example of a failed state, primarily marked by the chaotic aftermath of the Houthi takeover of Sanaa in 2014. This event catalyzed a descent into what can only be described as a profound state of failure, characterized by rampant economic collapse, a dire humanitarian crisis, and an ongoing internal conflict that has no immediate end in sight. The country's infrastructure has been decimated; public services are virtually non-existent, and the governance system has crumbled under the weight of internal strife and external pressures.
The journey towards state failure began to take shape more visibly after Yemen's unification in 1990, which brought together North and South Yemen into one nation. This unification, however, was fraught with challenges from the start. Political instability was a constant companion, with corruption deeply embedded within the state's institutions. The government, under Ali Abdullah Saleh, managed to maintain a semblance of control through a complex web of patronage and tribal alliances, but this did little to address systemic issues. Instead, it fostered an environment ripe for exploitation by various factions, setting the stage for the political and economic turmoil that followed.
The Houthi movement, originating in the north of Yemen among the Zaidi Shia Muslim minority, had long been at odds with the central government. Their grievances, mixed with a desire for greater autonomy and political representation, led to a series of conflicts with the Yemeni state. By 2014, the Houthis, capitalizing on widespread discontent with the government's performance, managed to seize Sanaa, effectively toppling the interim government that had replaced Saleh after the Arab Spring in 2011. This act of rebellion marked the beginning of an intense civil war, which was exacerbated when a Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015, aiming to restore the internationally recognized government.
The economic landscape of Yemen mirrors its political turmoil. Once the poorest country in the Arab world, Yemen's economy has collapsed under the dual pressures of war and blockade. Oil revenues, once a significant source of income, have dwindled as infrastructure was targeted and export capabilities were severely hampered. The Yemeni riyal has plummeted in value, leading to hyperinflation, making basic goods unaffordable for many. Unemployment has soared, and with it, poverty has deepened, pushing millions into dependency on humanitarian aid.
The humanitarian crisis in Yemen is one of the worst in modern times. Over 80% of the population requires some form of assistance, with millions on the brink of famine due to food scarcity caused by the blockade and disruption of supply chains. Health services have been obliterated. Hospitals are without supplies, and diseases like cholera have spread rapidly in conditions of poor sanitation and overcrowded displacement camps. The human cost of this conflict is staggering, with countless lives lost or altered by the relentless violence and deprivation.
Historically, Yemen's path to state failure can be traced through a lens of ongoing political instability. Since unification, power struggles among various factions, including tribal leaders, military officials, and political parties, have weakened the state's capacity to govern effectively. Corruption has siphoned off resources that could have been used for development, instead lining the pockets of a few while the masses suffered. This systemic corruption, coupled with a lack of accountability, created a governance vacuum that was filled by non-state actors like the Houthis.
The international community's response to Yemen's plight has been a mix of aid, military involvement, and diplomatic efforts, none of which have yet managed to stabilize the situation comprehensively. The blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition, intended to weaken the Houthis, has instead worsened the humanitarian crisis. Peace talks have been intermittent, with trust between conflicting parties at an all-time low. The international focus often shifts depending on broader geopolitical interests, leaving Yemen's immediate needs sometimes overshadowed by global power dynamics.
Yemen's descent into state failure is a complex narrative of internal strife, economic ruin, and a profound humanitarian emergency. The events post-2014, particularly the Houthi takeover, have only accelerated a process that was long in the making, driven by historical political instability, rampant corruption, and now, a seemingly endless war. The path to recovery for Yemen, if possible, would require not just cessation of hostilities but a comprehensive rebuilding of state institutions, the economy, and, most critically, the social fabric of the nation.
Yemen vs. Saudi Arabia Conflict
The Yemen versus Saudi Arabia conflict, rooted in historical tensions, has significantly shaped the modern geopolitical landscape of the Arabian Peninsula. The frictions trace back to religious, political, and territorial disputes that have simmered for decades, often exacerbated by the differing visions of regional influence between the two countries. Yemen, with its Zaidi Shia population in the north, has long been at odds with Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, particularly given the support Saudi Arabia has provided to various Yemeni governments to counterbalance the influence of groups like the Houthis.
In March 2015, tensions escalated into open conflict when Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab countries to intervene militarily in Yemen. This intervention was in response to the Houthi movement's capture of Sanaa and the subsequent political turmoil that saw President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi flee to Saudi Arabia. The stated aim of the Saudi-led coalition was to restore Hadi's government and quash the Houthi insurgency, which they accused of being backed by Iran. This military campaign, however, has had profound implications, not just for the political landscape but for the very fabric of Yemeni society.
The impact of Saudi Arabia's military actions on Yemen has been devastating. The coalition's air campaigns have led to widespread destruction of Yemen's infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and water treatment facilities. Civilian life has been brutally disrupted. Countless lives have been lost to airstrikes, and the blockade imposed by the coalition has restricted the flow of essential goods, leading to one of the worst humanitarian crises in recent history. The economic fallout has been catastrophic, with Yemen's already fragile economy collapsing under the strain of war, pushing millions into poverty and food insecurity.
The conflict has also had a significant human cost, with reports from human rights organizations highlighting numerous instances where civilian targets were hit, potentially amounting to war crimes. This has not only caused immediate loss and suffering but has also sown seeds of long-term animosity towards Saudi Arabia among Yemenis. The destruction of infrastructure means that even if peace were to be achieved, rebuilding Yemen would be an immense challenge, requiring international cooperation and funds on an unprecedented scale.
Moving to the current dynamics of the conflict, recent years have seen a shift towards diplomatic engagement and peace talks. After years of military stalemate, Saudi Arabia has shown signs of wanting to de-escalate its involvement in Yemen. This shift can be attributed to various factors, including international pressure, the economic cost of the war, and a recognition that a military solution might not be viable. Peace talks, mediated by the United Nations and other regional players like Oman, have started to yield some progress, with ceasefires being attempted, though often short-lived.
A notable development has been Saudi Arabia's strategic withdrawal of its forces from direct combat roles, signaling a desire to reduce its military footprint in Yemen. This withdrawal has been coupled with efforts to negotiate a peaceful settlement with the Houthis, who have control over much of Yemen's populated areas. These talks have included discussions on a comprehensive ceasefire, humanitarian aid access, and the potential reintegration of Houthi representatives into a national government framework. However, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges, as trust between parties is minimal, and the Houthis continue to demand significant concessions, including the lifting of the blockade.
Despite these diplomatic efforts, the situation on the ground remains volatile, with sporadic fighting and attacks continuing. The Houthis have also expanded their military capabilities, including drone and missile technology, which they've used against Saudi targets, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to find a resolution. Moreover, the involvement of other Yemeni factions, like the Southern Transitional Council, which seeks independence for southern Yemen, adds layers of complexity to the peace process, as their interests might not align with those of the Houthis or the internationally recognized government.
The Yemen versus Saudi Arabia conflict is a multifaceted saga of historical grievances, military intervention, and now, cautious steps towards peace. The Saudi-led intervention has left Yemen in ruins, with a humanitarian crisis that might take generations to heal. While the current dynamics suggest a move towards diplomacy over warfare, the path is uncertain, filled with the remnants of mistrust, the demands of various Yemeni factions, and the overarching shadow of regional power plays, particularly the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. The future of Yemen hangs in the balance, with the hope that peace talks will finally lead to a stable and sovereign Yemen, free from the ravages of war.
Who Are the Houthis?
The Houthis are a group that has emerged as one of the most significant players in Yemen's political and military landscape, primarily identified by their Zaydi Shia Islamic roots, which set them apart from the majority Sunni population in Yemen. Originating from the northern highlands of Saada Governorate, the movement traces its ideological lineage to Zayd ibn Ali, a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, whose followers, known as Zaydis, once ruled Yemen under the Imamate. This religious distinction forms the backbone of their identity, fueling a sense of historical entitlement and opposition to what they perceive as external cultural and religious impositions.
The ideology of the Houthis is encapsulated in their slogan, "Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam," which vividly reflects their stance against Western influence, particularly American and Israeli policies in the Middle East. This slogan, often seen on banners and heard at rallies, is not just rhetoric but a core expression of their worldview, where they see themselves as part of a broader resistance against what they describe as imperialist and Zionist forces. Their ideology combines elements of anti-imperialism with a staunch defense of their interpretation of Islam, positioning them in direct ideological conflict with both international powers and local Sunni groups, including the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis' rise to prominence is marked by their evolution from a religious revivalist movement to a formidable political and military entity within Yemen. Their initial aim was to revive Zaydism in response to perceived marginalization by the central government, which they believed favored Sunni ideologies. Over time, their opposition expanded to include political grievances, particularly after the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US, which they viewed as an assault on the Muslim world. This broader anti-imperialist stance has garnered them support not just within Yemen but also from sympathizers across the Arab and Muslim world.
Their differentiation from the broader Yemeni identity became starkly evident following their military successes, particularly the capture of Sanaa in 2014. Since then, the Houthis have established themselves as a separate power structure within Yemen, with control over significant territories, including the capital. They have set up parallel governance systems, including their own courts, taxes, and military forces, essentially functioning as a de facto state within a state. This has led to a complex situation where they both claim to represent Yemen while simultaneously being at odds with the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
The military capabilities of the Houthis have grown significantly since the outbreak of the civil war, transforming from a guerrilla force into one with substantial conventional and unconventional warfare abilities. They have acquired drones, missiles, and other armaments, some allegedly supplied by Iran, which they have used to challenge Saudi Arabia directly, striking deep into Saudi territory and the Red Sea and most recently Israel itself. This military prowess has not only fortified their position within Yemen but has also made them a significant actor in regional politics, complicating peace negotiations and Yemen's internal dynamics.
The Houthis' ideological and political agenda has also led to alliances and conflicts that transcend Yemeni borders. Their alignment with Iran, though often overstated, has provided them with ideological and material support, positioning them within the larger Shia-Sunni divide in the Middle East. However, their primary focus remains on Yemen, where they seek to establish a government reflective of their beliefs and to end foreign interventions, particularly from Saudi Arabia and the US-backed coalition.
Their governance style within controlled areas is marked by a mix of traditional Zaydi practices and modern political control. While some locals appreciate the stability and security they provide in comparison to the chaos of war, others criticize their authoritarian tendencies and human rights abuses. This duality reflects the broader challenge of understanding the Houthis: they are seen by some as liberators from corrupt governance and foreign influence, and by others as an oppressive force exacerbating Yemen's divides.
The Houthis are much more than a mere rebel group. They are a complex blend of religious identity, political ideology, and military might. Their slogan and actions have made them a focal point of contention both within Yemen and in the wider Middle Eastern geopolitical chess game. Their establishment as a separate entity within Yemen has not only redefined Yemeni politics but also reshaped the regional balance of power, making any resolution to Yemen's conflict intricately tied to understanding and negotiating with the Houthis.
The Distinct Role of Houthis in the Region
The Houthis have carved out a distinct role in Middle Eastern geopolitics, emerging as not just a significant force within Yemen but also as a key player in regional dynamics. Their integration into what is commonly referred to as Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has elevated their status beyond local insurgents to international actors. This axis, comprising groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine, shares a common ideological opposition to Israel and Western influence, particularly that of the United States. The Houthis' alignment with this group underscores their role in a broader geopolitical contest for influence in the Middle East, one where religious, political, and strategic interests intertwine.
The links between the Houthis and Iran are multifaceted, encompassing ideological, military, and financial support. Ideologically, both share an antipathy towards Israel and Western intervention in Muslim countries, which has been a rallying cry for the Houthis. Militarily, there's evidence suggesting that Iran has provided the Houthis with weapons, including missiles and drones, which have significantly enhanced their capabilities. This support has often been described as Iran's attempt to expand its influence in the region by backing non-state actors against its rivals. Financially, while less overt, there are indications of support that help sustain the Houthis' operations, though the extent of this aid is often debated.
The Houthis' impact on regional stability is profound. Their control over parts of Yemen, including the strategic Red Sea coast, gives them the leverage to influence maritime routes crucial for global trade. The Red Sea, connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal, is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Since 2015, the Houthis have escalated their attacks on commercial and military vessels in these waters, disrupting international shipping and increasing insurance and operational costs for shipping companies. This has not only economic implications but also strategic ones, as it challenges the freedom of navigation and the security of this vital maritime corridor.
Historically, the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea have varied from direct ship seizures to missile and drone strikes. A notable incident was the 2016 attack on the USS Mason, an American destroyer, marking one of their earliest forays into international waters. Since then, their tactics have evolved, with significant escalations following regional conflicts like the Israel-Hamas war. They've targeted ships they claim are linked to Israel or American interests, but many attacks have lacked clear connections, suggesting a broader strategy to assert regional dominance and disrupt trade as a form of leverage or retaliation.
The Houthis' actions in the Red Sea have led to international responses, including the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a US-led maritime task force aimed at safeguarding these shipping lanes. This operation has seen participation from several nations, indicating the global concern over the stability of these routes. However, the Houthis have shown resilience, adapting their strategies to continue their attacks despite international military presence, which has kept tensions high and has periodically threatened to escalate into a larger conflict.
Their role in regional politics extends beyond maritime disruptions. The Houthis have become a pivotal element in the Yemen conflict, complicating peace processes and influencing the strategic calculations of neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has been directly affected by Houthi missile strikes. Their ability to hold ground against a Saudi-led coalition and to negotiate from a position of strength has changed the dynamics of power in the Arabian Peninsula, making them unavoidable in any peace talks or regional security dialogues.
Moreover, the Houthis' involvement in the broader "Axis of Resistance" gives them a voice in the Palestinian cause, where they have expressed solidarity through missile attacks on Israel, although these have had limited impact. This solidarity, however, strengthens their position within the Muslim world, portraying them as defenders of Muslim causes against what they describe as Zionist and imperialist aggressions.
The Houthis have transitioned from a local insurgent group to a significant regional player whose actions have repercussions far beyond Yemen. Their ties with Iran, their impact on the stability of key shipping lanes, and their place within a network opposing Western and Israeli influence underscore their unique and critical role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. As they continue to assert their influence, the international community remains challenged to find a balance between ensuring maritime security and addressing the complex socio-political issues fueling the conflict in Yemen.
Houthi Beliefs and Goals
The Houthi movement, known officially as Ansar Allah, has articulated a set of beliefs and goals that are deeply entrenched in both domestic Yemeni politics and broader international contexts. Domestically, their primary aim is to establish control and governance over Yemen. This goal has been pursued through military means, leading to their seizure of Sanaa in 2014 and subsequent control over much of the country's populated areas. They challenge the legitimacy of the internationally recognized government led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, which operates out of the southern city of Aden. The Houthis' governance model seeks to combine elements of Zaydi Shia religious principles with a form of nationalistic governance, often at odds with the federal, democratic system proposed by international mediators.
The progress towards achieving full control over Yemen has been fraught with challenges. Despite holding Sanaa and significant territories, the Houthis face opposition from various Yemeni factions, including the Southern Transitional Council in the south, who seek secession, and remnants of the Yemeni army loyal to the Hadi government. The ongoing civil war, now over a decade long, has led to a stalemate where neither side can claim complete victory. The Houthis have managed to maintain control but at the cost of international isolation and amidst a humanitarian crisis that has turned Yemen into one of the world's worst disaster zones.
Internationally, the Houthis' goals are shaped by their ideological opposition to Israel and the United States. Their slogan, "Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse the Jews, Victory to Islam," is not just rhetoric but a declaration of their political and religious stance. They view Israel's existence and actions, particularly towards Palestine, as an affront to Muslim nations, aligning themselves with the Palestinian cause as part of a broader resistance against what they see as Zionist and imperialist aggression. This stance is also a critique of US policies in the Middle East, which they believe perpetuates instability and supports regimes detrimental to Muslim interests.
The Houthis' support for Palestinian causes is strategic and ideological. It serves to bolster their image both domestically and within the Muslim world as defenders of Muslim rights and lands. By aligning with Palestine, they gain sympathy and support from audiences who might not otherwise back their domestic political agenda. This international positioning also helps in garnering support from countries and groups opposed to Israel, like Iran, which has provided them with various forms of assistance, thereby enhancing their military and political capabilities.
Challenging Western influence in the Middle East is another key aspect of the Houthis' international agenda. They perceive the US and other Western nations as colonial powers with interests that often conflict with those of the Muslim world. By attacking or threatening US and allied interests, the Houthis aim to disrupt what they see as an imperialist narrative, forcing these powers to reconsider their military and diplomatic strategies in the region. This defiance is also a means to assert their independence and to claim a role in shaping regional politics away from Western dominance.
Their actions in the Red Sea are part of this broader strategy to challenge Western influence and support for Israel. The Red Sea is a critical artery for global trade, and by attacking ships, particularly those with perceived Israeli or American links, the Houthis aim to exert economic pressure. These attacks, which include drone and missile strikes as well as ship captures, are meant to disrupt trade routes, raise the cost of shipping, and indirectly influence geopolitical discussions, especially concerning the blockade of Gaza and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict. The Houthis justify these actions as a form of resistance against nations supporting Israel, but they also serve to highlight their military capabilities and extend their influence beyond Yemen's borders.
The Houthis' strategy in the Red Sea has international repercussions, leading to the formation of coalitions like Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at ensuring safe passage through these waters. However, the Houthis continue these operations as a means of negotiation, asserting that their actions will cease only with significant concessions, like the lifting of the blockade on Yemen or broader changes in the Israel-Palestine situation. This has turned the Red Sea into a flashpoint for international diplomacy and military strategy, underlining the Houthis' role in shaping regional security dynamics.
The Houthis' beliefs and goals are a complex tapestry of domestic control, regional influence, and international defiance. Their ongoing struggle for governance in Yemen is marked by both achievements and significant challenges. Internationally, their actions resonate with anti-imperialist sentiments and support for Palestinian causes, positioning them within a larger narrative of resistance against Western and Israeli influence in the Middle East. Their operations in the Red Sea not only challenge maritime security but also serve as a lever in the geopolitical chess game, making the Houthis a pivotal actor in current Middle Eastern affairs.
(Pictured above: President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi)
Leadership of the Houthis
At the helm of the Houthi movement stands Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, a figure who has shaped the group's strategy and direction since taking over leadership in 2004 following the death of his brother, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi. Born into the Houthi family in Saada, Yemen, Abdel-Malik embodies the group's ideological and political aspirations. His background is deeply rooted in the Zaidi Shia tradition, with his father, Badr al-Din al-Houthi, being a prominent religious scholar within the community. This familial and religious background has not only given Abdel-Malik a profound influence over the movement's followers but also framed his approach to leadership as both a spiritual and political force.
Abdel-Malik's role in shaping Houthi strategy extends beyond military tactics to encompass political maneuvering and ideological propagation. Under his leadership, the Houthis have transformed from a regional insurgent group into a formidable political and military entity capable of challenging the Yemeni state's authority. His speeches often blend religious rhetoric with calls for national unity against foreign interference, particularly from Saudi Arabia and the United States. This dual approach has helped in rallying support, not just among the Zaydi Shia but also among Yemenis disillusioned with the central government's corruption and inefficacy.
In terms of control and influence, the Houthis, led by Abdel-Malik, have managed to establish significant control over key territories in Yemen. Since capturing Sanaa in 2014, they have maintained a strong hold over the capital and much of the north, including strategic areas like Saada and Amran. Their control extends to vital infrastructure like the Sanaa airport and ports, giving them leverage over the movement of goods and people, which is crucial for both governance and military operations. The effectiveness of their governance structures, however, is a mixed bag. While they have established parallel administrative systems, including courts, taxation, and social services, their rule has been criticized for authoritarian practices and human rights abuses.
The governance under Abdel-Malik's leadership has attempted to provide a semblance of stability amidst the chaos of war. In areas under Houthi control, there's been an effort to maintain public services like education and health, albeit with limited resources and under the strain of conflict. Their taxation system, though often described as harsh, has been a means to sustain their operations and governance. However, the quality of these services varies greatly, with many Yemenis facing severe hardships despite Houthi control, exacerbated by the blockade and economic sanctions.
The Houthis' control over territories like Sanaa is not just physical but also symbolic, representing their claim to national legitimacy. However, this control is contested, with the internationally recognized government, backed by Saudi Arabia, operating from Aden and other southern cities. This division reflects the broader fragmentation of Yemen, where Houthi governance in the north contrasts with the different administrative and political structures in the south, complicating any unified approach to governance or peace.
The effectiveness of Houthi governance structures also comes under scrutiny regarding their ability to deliver justice and maintain order. While they have established a judicial system based on their interpretation of Sharia law, there are numerous reports of arbitrary detentions, suppression of dissent, and violations of human rights. This has led to a complex scenario where, while some locals appreciate the order and services provided by the Houthis compared to the anarchy of war, others view their rule as oppressive.
Abdel-Malik al-Houthi's leadership has been pivotal in navigating these governance challenges. His strategy includes both military consolidation and diplomatic engagement when it serves Houthi interests. His role in peace talks, often through proxies or lower-ranking officials, shows a nuanced approach, aiming to secure Houthi gains while keeping the door open for negotiations that could legitimize their rule further or at least provide respite from the ongoing conflict.
Abdel-Malik al-Houthi's leadership has been central to the Houthis' evolution into a significant political force in Yemen. His blend of religious authority, military acumen, and political strategy has enabled the Houthis to maintain control over substantial parts of Yemen, including the capital. However, the effectiveness of their governance is debated, with their control being both a beacon of stability for some and a source of tyranny for others amidst the broader context of Yemen's civil war. The future of Houthi influence will likely hinge on how they manage these internal governance issues while navigating the complex web of Yemeni politics and international diplomacy.
(Pictured above: Abdel-Malik al-Houthi)
Yemeni Government's Struggles
Under the current leadership of Rashad al-Alimi, who heads the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the Yemeni government faces numerous challenges that underscore its struggles for legitimacy, control, and effective governance. Al-Alimi was appointed chairman of the PLC in April 2022, following a decree by then-President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, who transferred his powers to this council amid ongoing conflict. The PLC was intended to unite various anti-Houthi factions under a single banner, but its formation has been criticized for lacking broad Yemeni consensus, with many seeing it as an entity more aligned with Saudi interests than representing a national will.
The role of the PLC under al-Alimi is multifaceted, aiming to restore state institutions, negotiate peace, and manage the dire humanitarian situation. However, the legitimacy of this council is a contentious issue both domestically and internationally. While recognized by countries like the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Nations as Yemen's legitimate government, within Yemen, its legitimacy is challenged by the Houthis, who control Sanaa and much of the north, and by factions like the Southern Transitional Council, which has its own secessionist ambitions. This fragmented support base undermines the PLC's authority and its ability to govern effectively.
The grip on power by al-Alimi's government is visibly weak, primarily because it operates from Aden, the temporary capital, rather than Sanaa, which remains under Houthi control. This physical separation from the traditional seat of power symbolizes the government's limited sovereignty. Moreover, many key government figures, including al-Alimi himself, have spent significant time in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, leading to criticisms of being a "government in exile" or a "hotel government," suggesting a lack of genuine control over Yemeni territory. This situation complicates the government's efforts to assert authority and implement policies, as it lacks both the physical presence and the full spectrum of state power in regions outside its control.
The fragmentation of control is further exacerbated by the internal divisions within the PLC and the broader anti-Houthi coalition. The council includes members from various factions, some of whom have conflicting interests regarding Yemen's future, particularly on issues like unity versus southern secession. This internal discord makes unified governance challenging, often leading to paralysis in decision-making and policy implementation. The government's ability to project power and provide services like security, justice, and public welfare is severely hampered, contributing to public disillusionment and further entrenching the power of local militias and non-state actors.
The Yemeni government's struggles are also evident in its economic management. With control over only parts of the country and facing blockades, the government has limited resources at its disposal. The collapse of state institutions, including the central bank, has led to economic turmoil, with rampant inflation and a currency crisis. The PLC has attempted to address these issues, but its effectiveness is constrained by the ongoing war, territorial control issues, and the need to rely heavily on international aid, which comes with its own geopolitical strings.
Moreover, the security situation remains volatile, with the government struggling to ensure safety even in areas under its nominal control. The presence of multiple armed groups, including those loyal to the PLC but operating with considerable autonomy, means that the government often has to negotiate with these forces rather than command them. This dynamic not only weakens the central authority but also increases the risk of internal conflicts and power struggles among the various factions within the anti-Houthi camp.
The international dimension of the government's struggles adds another layer of complexity. While receiving support from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the US, these alliances come with expectations and sometimes conflicting agendas that can undermine the PLC's autonomy. For instance, the UAE's support for southern separatists has occasionally put it at odds with the PLC's vision for a united Yemen, further fragmenting the government's position. Additionally, the international community's focus on peace negotiations often places the PLC in a difficult position, as it must balance between demonstrating military resolve and showing willingness for compromise, all while maintaining its legitimacy.
Rashad al-Alimi's leadership of the Yemeni government through the PLC is marked by significant challenges. The issues of legitimacy, control, and effective governance are deeply intertwined with Yemen's fragmented political landscape, ongoing civil war, and external influences. The government's struggle to exert sovereignty from Aden and Riyadh reflects a broader crisis of state authority in Yemen, where the path to stability and peace remains obscured by internal divisions and the complexities of international involvement.
(Pictured above: Rashad al-Alimi)
Houthi Military Capabilities
The Houthi military capabilities have seen significant evolution, particularly in terms of their arms supply, which is widely believed to be bolstered by Iranian support. Despite Iran's official denials, numerous seizures of weapons shipments by the US and its allies in international waters have linked sophisticated weaponry to Tehran. This includes anti-ship missiles, drones, and potentially even hypersonic missiles, although the latter's presence in Houthi arsenals is more speculative. The Houthis have showcased missiles like the "Palestine" which bear striking resemblances to Iranian designs, such as the "Fattah" hypersonic missile. While exact inventories are hard to ascertain, reports suggest that the Houthis maintain a diverse arsenal, including medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, alongside a variety of drones, capable of reaching targets far beyond Yemen's borders.
The guidance and technology behind Houthi military equipment are subjects of much speculation and analysis. The sophistication of some missiles and drones points towards external assistance, with Iran being the prime suspect due to its known support for similar groups in the region. Iranian advisors are believed to have played a role in training Houthi fighters and technicians, potentially aiding in the assembly and maintenance of complex systems. However, there ie2s also evidence suggesting that the Houthis have developed some capabilities independently, adapting and reverse-engineering captured or supplied technology to suit their needs. This includes modifying missiles to extend their range or improve guidance systems, showcasing a level of technical acumen developed over years of conflict.
The supply chain from Russia to Iran, and subsequently to the Houthis, has been highlighted by some analysts, especially concerning advanced missile technology. Russia, keen on strengthening its ties with Iran amidst Western sanctions, might indirectly contribute to Houthi capabilities through transfers of technology or components that Iran then forwards to Yemen. This complex network of arms proliferation underscores the global nature of the conflict, where international politics and alliances play a direct role in regional warfare.
Funding for the Houthis comes from multiple sources, making their financial operations as diverse as their military capabilities. One notable source has been the disruption of maritime traffic in the Red Sea, where they have engaged in what could be described as a "hostage or bounty" system. By attacking or capturing ships, they have managed to extract concessions, aid, or even direct payments for safe passage. This has been particularly effective since the escalation of their attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian cause, targeting ships they claim are linked to Israel or its allies, although some attacks have impacted global trade indiscriminately.
China's involvement, whether direct or indirect, in financially supporting the Houthis is less documented but speculated upon due to Beijing's strategic interests in the Red Sea and broader Middle Eastern stability. China has been known to engage economically with both sides of the Yemen conflict to secure its interests in the region, including oil routes and port access. While not openly supporting the Houthis, China's dealings with Iran, a known supporter, and its economic activities in Yemen might indirectly benefit Houthi finances through trade or other secretive means.
Apart from these, the Houthis have also leveraged control over Yemeni resources like oil fields and ports for revenue, despite international sanctions and blockades. Their taxation systems in areas under their control, including Sanaa, provide another stream of income, albeit under the strain of war and economic collapse. There is also the possibility of foreign aid from countries sympathetic to their cause or those looking to destabilize Saudi and US influence in the region, like Lebanon's Hezbollah, which shares ideological ties with the Houthis and has been known to support similar groups.
The complexity of these financial networks is compounded by the Houthis' ability to generate income from smuggling, both of goods into Yemen and weapons out of it, through networks that span across the Arabian Peninsula. This includes deals with tribal leaders and local militias, creating a web of economic interdependence that sustains their operations. Additionally, the Houthis have been known to engage in ransom operations, detaining foreign nationals or ships for negotiation, further illustrating their multifaceted approach to funding their military and political endeavors.
The Houthi military capabilities are a testament to their adaptability and the intricate web of support they have cultivated. Their arms supply, heavily influenced by Iranian support, combined with possible Russian-Iranian technology transfers, has equipped them with a formidable array of weapons. Financially, they have shown ingenuity in exploiting regional conflicts and maritime routes for revenue, with support from various international actors, including potentially China, within a broader context of Middle Eastern power dynamics. This has enabled them to sustain a prolonged conflict, challenge regional and international powers, and continue to assert their influence within Yemen and beyond.
(Pictured above: This image taken from video and released by the Ansar Allah Media Office claims to show the launch of the missile that landed in an open area in central Israel [Ansar Allah Media Office via AP])
Houthi Actions Against Israel
The Houthi actions against Israel are deeply rooted in their ideological stance, particularly their solidarity with the Palestinian cause and their opposition to Israeli policies, especially those concerning Gaza. The Houthis, with their slogan proclaiming "Death to Israel" alongside "Death to America," have positioned themselves as part of the broader resistance against what they perceive as Zionist aggression and Western imperialism in the Middle East. Their support for Palestine is not just rhetorical. It is a strategic alignment that resonates with their domestic support base in Yemen and garners sympathy across the Muslim world. This solidarity is also a critique of Israel's military actions in Gaza, which the Houthis have repeatedly condemned, viewing them as disproportionate and punitive against the Palestinian population.
At the heart of the Houthi motivations is a desire to challenge Israel's policies, particularly the blockade and invasion of Gaza, which they see as a form of collective punishment. The Houthis believe that by attacking Israel, they can pressure the international community to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where Israel's military operations have led to significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This stance also serves their broader geopolitical strategy to assert themselves as significant actors in regional politics, opposing not just Israel but also its allies, particularly the United States, which supports Israel militarily and diplomatically.
The methods employed by the Houthis to strike at Israel are primarily through the use of drones and ballistic missiles. Since the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Houthis have launched numerous drone attacks aimed at Israeli territory, especially targeting the southern city of Eilat, which is within range from their positions in Yemen. These drones, often described as suicide or kamikaze drones, are relatively low-cost but can cause significant disruption or damage, depending on their payload and accuracy. Their use reflects an asymmetric warfare strategy where less technologically advanced groups can still pose threats to highly defended nations.
Ballistic missiles form another prong of Houthi military action against Israel. They have fired missiles like the Burkan and Quds types, which are believed to be variants of Iranian designs, towards Israeli territory. These attacks are not just military operations but also have a strong symbolic value, signaling the Houthis' capability to strike deep into what they consider enemy territory. The effectiveness of these missiles has been limited by Israel's robust missile defense systems, including the Arrow, which intercepts ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. A few missiles have gotten through lately. However, the mere act of launching such attacks serves to keep Israel and its allies on high alert.
The Houthis have also extended their aggression towards maritime routes, particularly in the Red Sea, which is crucial for Israel's trade. By attacking ships they claim are linked to Israel or its supporters, the Houthis aim to economically pressure Israel and disrupt its supply lines. These maritime attacks have included drone strikes, ballistic missile launches, and even the seizure of vessels. Their strategy here is dual-purpose: to directly challenge Israel's maritime security and to indirectly influence international politics by impacting global trade, thereby drawing attention to the Palestinian issue.
These actions against maritime routes have broader implications beyond the Israel-Houthi dynamic. They affect international shipping lanes, increasing costs for insurance and rerouting, which has global economic ramifications. The Houthis justify these attacks by claiming solidarity with Gaza, often stating that they will stop when Israel ends its blockade and military operations there. However, the attacks also serve as a means to assert regional influence, showing that the Houthis can project power beyond Yemen's borders.
The Houthis' military capabilities in these operations are a result of years of conflict, adaptation, and support from allies like Iran. Iran's role, while often denied by Tehran, is suspected in providing not just the ideological backing but also the technology and expertise for these attacks. This includes training in the use of sophisticated weaponry and potentially even in the manufacturing or assembly of these weapons within Yemen.
The Houthi actions against Israel are a complex blend of ideological solidarity, strategic positioning, and military opportunism. Their attacks using drones and ballistic missiles target both Israeli land and sea, aiming to disrupt and pressure Israel while also showcasing their capabilities on an international stage. While these actions have not significantly altered the military balance with Israel, they have heightened regional tensions, drawn international attention to the Yemen and Palestinian conflicts, and positioned the Houthis as a persistent threat that cannot be easily ignored.
Israel's Response to Houthi Threats and recent missile attacks
In the last three months, Israel has faced several missile and drone attacks from the Houthis, escalating tensions in the region. The Houthis have primarily used a mix of ballistic missiles and drones to target Israeli territory, with some of these attacks aimed at the southern city of Eilat, which is within range of Houthi weaponry from Yemen. Notable among these were hypersonic ballistic missile strikes, which, while largely intercepted by Israel's advanced Arrow missile defense system, still managed to cause concern due to their speed and potential for evading interception. There have been at least four significant Houthi missile launches towards Israel, with one incident on December 26, 2024, where a missile was partially intercepted but debris caused damage to civilian infrastructure, including a school in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv.
In response to these provocations, Israel has conducted several airstrikes targeting Houthi positions. One of the most significant military actions was in late December 2024, when Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets struck Houthi-controlled areas, including Sanaa's international airport and key infrastructure in Hodeida. These strikes were part of a broader strategy to hit what Israel described as military targets, including ports and energy installations used by the Houthis for military logistics, particularly to smuggle Iranian weapons. The strikes on Sanaa airport notably disrupted operations, while those in Hodeida targeted power stations and port facilities, aiming to degrade the Houthis' war-fighting capabilities. These actions have resulted in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, drawing international scrutiny and highlighting the humanitarian implications of such military engagements.
Israel's military response has not been limited to these two locations. There have been reports of strikes on other coastal targets, including the Salif port and the Ras Isa oil terminal, both crucial for Houthi operations along the Red Sea. These attacks are aimed at cutting off the supply lines that the Houthis use, which are believed to be supported by Iran, thereby attempting to diminish their military effectiveness. Each strike is part of a calculated response to not just deter future attacks but also to signal Israel's reach and resolve to counter threats over vast distances.
The strategic implications of Israel's actions against the Houthis extend beyond mere retaliation. Israel has been pushing for the formation of an international coalition to address the Houthi threat, viewing it as part of a larger pattern of Iranian proxy aggression across the Middle East. This push is seen as an attempt to internationalize the response to the Houthis, framing their actions not just as a regional issue but as a threat to global maritime security, especially given the Houthis' attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. By advocating for such a coalition, Israel aims to share the burden of response, particularly with nations whose economic interests are directly affected by disruptions in one of the world's most critical trade routes.
This call for a coalition also reflects Israel's strategy to isolate Iran and its proxies by rallying international support against them. This strategy includes diplomatic efforts to have the Houthis designated as a terrorist organization by more countries, thereby increasing the legal and operational frameworks to counter them. The involvement of countries like the United States, which has already conducted strikes against Houthi targets, and potentially other Western and Arab nations, would not only bolster Israel's military actions but also legitimize them on the international stage.
The effort to create an international response is complicated by the political landscape of the region. While some countries might be sympathetic to Israel's security concerns, others are cautious about being seen as directly opposing a group like the Houthis, who claim to act in solidarity with the Palestinian cause. This dynamic requires delicate diplomatic balancing, where Israel must navigate its security interests with the broader geopolitical context, including relations with Arab states and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict.
The recent military engagements and the push for an international coalition also underscore Israel's broader security strategy in dealing with multi-front threats. By focusing on the Houthis, Israel aims to project power and deterrence not only against Yemen but also as a warning to other groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, who are also part of what Israel considers the Iranian "Axis of Resistance."
Israel's response to Houthi threats and recent missile attacks involves a combination of direct military action and strategic diplomacy. The airstrikes on Houthi targets in Sanaa, Hodeida, and other strategic locations demonstrate Israel's willingness to engage militarily over long distances. At the same time, the push for an international coalition reflects an understanding that tackling the Houthi threat, seen as an extension of Iranian influence, requires a coordinated, multifaceted approach involving military, diplomatic, and economic measures to ensure regional and international stability.
US Involvement and Policy
The United States has been actively involved in patrolling the Red Sea since the Houthis began their aggressive actions against international shipping, which intensified in late 2023. The inception of these patrols can be traced back to Operation Prosperity Guardian, announced by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in December 2023. This operation was specifically designed to counter the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, ensuring the safety of one of the world's most vital maritime routes. U.S. naval forces, including destroyers and aircraft carriers like the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, have been deployed to the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where they have been patrolling continuously since the operation's launch. These patrols have involved intercepting Houthi drones and missiles, providing escorts to commercial ships, and maintaining a visible deterrent presence in the area.
The U.S. has been joined by several allies in these patrols, with the current participants including the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Italy, and others, forming a multinational coalition. As of early 2025, these nations continue to patrol the Red Sea, with the U.S. Navy taking a leading role due to its significant naval capabilities in the region. The U.S. destroyers like USS Gravely, USS Mason, and USS Philippine Sea have been pivotal, alongside aircraft from carriers, in shooting down Houthi projectiles and ensuring safe passage for international shipping.
In 2024, the United States conducted a notable operation involving the use of B-2 stealth bombers against Houthi targets in Yemen. Specifically, on October 16, 2024, U.S. defense officials announced that B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers carried out precision strikes targeting five hardened underground weapons storage facilities in Houthi-controlled areas. The operation was part of a broader U.S. strategy to degrade Houthi military capabilities, particularly those used to conduct attacks on civilian and military vessels in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The B-2 bombers, known for their ability to penetrate sophisticated air defense systems due to their stealth technology, were launched from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, marking a significant demonstration of U.S. global strike capabilities. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized that the use of B-2 bombers was a "unique demonstration of the United States' ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach," no matter how deeply buried or fortified. The primary objective was to disrupt the Houthis' access to weapons components, including missiles and other munitions, which they had been using against international shipping and U.S. naval assets.
These strikes were the first known use of B-2 bombers against the Houthis, showcasing a step-up in military tactics and signaling a message not just to the Houthis but potentially to other adversaries about U.S. reach and precision strike capabilities. The operation was authorized by President Joe Biden, with Austin stating it was aimed at further degrading the Houthis' capability to continue their destabilizing behavior, protecting and defending U.S. forces and personnel in critical waterways.
The targets included areas around Sanaa, Yemen's capital, which has been under Houthi control since 2014, and Saada, the Houthi stronghold. The strikes were reported by both U.S. officials and Houthi-affiliated media, with no immediate reports of civilian casualties, though assessments were ongoing. The Houthis' Al Masirah TV reported airstrikes in these regions but did not provide details on damage or casualties.
This military action came amidst ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping routes, which they claimed were in solidarity with Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Houthis had escalated their attacks since November 2023, targeting ships they believed to be linked to Israel, the U.S., or the UK, although some attacks impacted vessels with no clear connection to these nations. The U.S. response, including the use of B-2 bombers, was part of a series of actions aimed at deterring such attacks and securing maritime passages critical for global trade.
The operation also highlighted the U.S.'s strategic military options, involving assets like the B-2, which are rarely used in combat due to their high value and specialized role. This marked the first combat mission for the B-2 since January 2017, illustrating the U.S. military's willingness to deploy significant resources to address threats from non-state actors like the Houthis.
The strikes were part of a broader U.S. and international effort to counter Houthi aggression, complementing previous actions by U.S. and U.K. forces against Houthi targets since January 2024 under operations like Operation Poseidon Archer. These efforts aimed at diminishing Houthi capabilities to attack Red Sea targets while maintaining a focus on minimizing civilian harm and addressing the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
The U.S. B-2 strikes on October 16, 2024, against Houthi infrastructure represented a significant escalation in U.S. military strategy in Yemen, focusing on degrading the group's ability to threaten international maritime security while also sending a strong message about U.S. military reach and precision.
In terms of recent military strikes, the U.S. has shifted towards more direct action against Houthi infrastructure in the last two months as a response to the continued threat to maritime security. In late November 2024, U.S. forces conducted a series of precision strikes targeting Houthi missile storage and command facilities in Sanaa and Hodeida. These operations included the use of Tomahawk missiles launched from both destroyers and submarines, alongside air strikes by F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower carrier. On December 31, 2024, another significant operation was launched, targeting multiple Houthi sites in Yemen, including radar installations and missile launch pads, aiming to degrade their ability to conduct future attacks on shipping.
The U.S. military operations have escalated in both frequency and intensity, with January 2025 seeing additional strikes. On January 3, U.S. forces targeted Houthi command centers and weapon production sites in Yemen, signaling a clear move from defensive patrolling to offensive action. This shift reflects a growing frustration with the ineffectiveness of previous deterrent measures and an intent to directly weaken Houthi military capabilities.
On the diplomatic and strategic front, the United States finds itself in a complex position, balancing its support for Saudi-led peace initiatives in Yemen with its counter-terrorism efforts against the Houthis. The U.S. has been a key backer of the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, providing intelligence, logistical support, and arms sales to help combat Houthi forces. However, with the conflict dragging on and causing a humanitarian catastrophe, the U.S. has also pushed for diplomatic solutions, encouraging peace talks that would lead to a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.
This balancing act is evident in U.S. policy, where it supports peace efforts while simultaneously engaging in military actions. The U.S. has been involved in facilitating negotiations, often in coordination with the United Nations and Oman, aiming to bring the Houthis to the table. Yet, the recent direct strikes on Houthi targets indicate a policy adjustment, where the U.S. is less hesitant to use military force to protect international shipping lanes and to respond to attacks on its personnel and assets, even as it advocates for peace.
The strategic stance of the U.S. is also influenced by the broader Middle Eastern context, where it seeks to counterbalance Iranian influence, which supports the Houthis. The U.S. actions against the Houthis serve as part of a larger strategy to contain Iran's regional activities without igniting a larger conflict. This involves a nuanced approach where military action is seen as a necessary deterrent but is coupled with diplomatic efforts to avoid escalation and to foster a political resolution in Yemen.
The U.S. involvement in the Red Sea and against Houthi infrastructure represents a multifaceted approach to regional security. Its patrols with allies aim to secure one of the world's critical shipping lanes, while its military strikes against Houthi targets show an increasing willingness for direct action to protect these interests. Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel, reflecting the U.S.'s complex role in trying to end the Yemen conflict while managing regional power dynamics and the broader challenge of countering Iranian influence in the Middle East.
(Pictured above: A US B-2 bomber)
Future Prospects
The future prospects regarding the Houthi movement's activities involve several complex and intertwined issues, each with its own trajectory influenced by political, military, and diplomatic factors. Regarding their attacks on the Red Sea, the Houthis are likely to continue such operations as long as they perceive strategic benefits or until they are compelled to cease by overwhelming military or diplomatic pressure. Their attacks serve multiple purposes: they raise their profile internationally, provide leverage in peace negotiations, and economically pressure adversaries, particularly those they associate with Israel or Western interests. Unless there's a significant shift in the regional power dynamics or a comprehensive peace deal that addresses their core demands, including the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, these attacks might persist.
The question of whether the Houthis will stop attacking Israel is equally tied to broader regional conflicts, particularly the Israel-Palestine issue. The Houthis have framed their attacks as acts of solidarity with Palestine, using them to bolster their domestic and regional support among those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Ceasing these attacks would likely require not just direct negotiations with Israel or its allies but also significant progress toward resolving or at least de-escalating the Israel-Palestine conflict. Given the current geopolitical climate and the Houthis' ideological commitment, a halt to these attacks seems improbable without a fundamental change in the regional status quo or a direct, beneficial agreement.
As for gaining full control over Yemen, the Houthis face numerous obstacles. They currently control significant portions, including Sanaa and much of the north, but achieving complete control would mean overcoming resistance from various factions like the Southern Transitional Council, which seeks an independent South Yemen, and the remnants of the internationally recognized government. Additionally, external powers like Saudi Arabia, which has been at war with the Houthis since 2015, would need to either withdraw their support for other Yemeni factions or reach a peace agreement that recognizes Houthi control. The fragmented nature of Yemeni society, combined with international interests, suggests that full control by the Houthis would require either a prolonged and devastating conflict or a negotiated settlement that includes significant concessions from all sides.
Regarding Iranian support for the Houthis, the relationship between Tehran and the Houthis is strategic, providing Iran with an ally against Saudi Arabia and a means to influence regional politics. Iran has been a crucial source of weapons, funds, and ideological backing for the Houthis. Whether Iran will stop this support depends on shifts in regional power dynamics, the cost-benefit analysis of continuing this support, and the pressure from international sanctions or military actions. If the Houthis can no longer serve Iran's strategic interests or if the costs of support become too high due to international actions or changes in Iran's internal or external policies, there might be a reduction or reconfiguration of this support. However, given the deep ideological and strategic ties, a complete cessation seems unlikely in the near term without significant changes in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The Houthis might consider scaling back their military actions under specific conditions. For instance, a comprehensive peace deal that addresses their political and economic grievances within Yemen could lead to a reduction in Red Sea attacks. Similarly, if Israel were to significantly alter its policies towards Palestine in a way that satisfies the Houthis' conditions, or if there were a broader shift towards peace in the region, their aggression against Israel might decrease. However, these scenarios require not just local but also international cooperation and a willingness to address root causes of conflict, which has been elusive so far.
The Houthis' control over Yemen could expand if they manage to capitalize on internal divisions among their opponents or if international support for the Saudi-led coalition wanes. They hqve shown resilience and military adaptability, which could lead to further territorial gains. Yet, any move towards full control would likely be met with resistance, possibly escalating the conflict or leading to international intervention, making the path to total governance fraught with challenges.
Iran's strategic calculus with the Houthis also involves managing its own international standing. If global pressure increases significantly, particularly through sanctions or direct military actions against Iranian assets supporting the Houthis, Tehran might adjust its level of involvement. However, Iran has a history of finding ways to support allies covertly or through proxy networks, suggesting that while the form of support might change, the commitment to countering its regional adversaries through groups like the Houthis might remain.
While the Houthis might adjust their tactics or the intensity of their actions based on the evolving situation, giving up their attacks on the Red Sea or against Israel, gaining full control of Yemen, or seeing a complete cessation of Iranian support all hinge on a complex web of regional and international factors. Peace in Yemen, a resolution to the Palestinian issue, and shifts in Middle Eastern power structures could influence these outcomes, but without substantial changes, these prospects remain speculative at best.
Destroying the Houthis
Destroying the Houthi movement would necessitate a multifaceted military operation far beyond simple aerial assaults. The complexity arises from the Houthis' integration into the Yemeni population, their control over strategic territories, and their ability to wage asymmetric warfare. A comprehensive strategy would likely involve a combination of air strikes, naval blockades, cyber operations, and, critically, ground forces to dismantle their military capabilities, governance structures, and ideological support.
The initial phase would involve intense aerial bombardment to degrade Houthi military infrastructure, targeting missile and drone manufacturing sites, command centers, and supply routes. This would be combined with a naval blockade to prevent the influx of weapons, particularly from Iran, and to control maritime access points like the Red Sea. However, this would only weaken their military capacity. To truly dismantle the group, ground operations would be indispensable.
A ground operation would require a significant number of troops to engage in both urban and rural combat environments. Hypothetically, this could involve deploying around 50,000 to 100,000 or more soldiers, considering the need to secure large swathes of territory, including Sanaa, Hodeida, and Saada. These forces would need to include infantry, special operations units for precision strikes, and engineers to deal with booby-trapped areas and mines. The operation would likely involve coalition forces, with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and possibly other Arab nations contributing, given the Houthis' regional impact. Israel would not likely be a part as other Middle Eastern nations would never join such a coalition that involves them.
Israel, operating independently, would face insurmountable challenges in attempting to invade, hold, and ultimately destroy the Houthi movement in Yemen. First and foremost, the geographical distance between Israel and Yemen is significant, complicating logistics, supply lines, and rapid response capabilities. Yemen is not a neighbor like Lebanon or Gaza, where Israel has engaged in military operations. It is across the Arabian Peninsula, requiring a substantial naval and air operation just to reach the conflict zone, let alone maintain an occupation.
The sheer size of Yemen, coupled with its rugged terrain, would make any military operation by Israel alone a logistical nightmare. The Houthis control vast areas, including mountainous regions in the north, urban centers like Sanaa, and coastal areas like Hodeida, which are critical for logistics but also heavily fortified. Israel would need to secure and hold these diverse terrains, which would demand a massive deployment of forces, far exceeding what Israel might be willing or able to commit given its other regional commitments and limited military manpower.
Moreover, Israel's military is structured primarily for rapid, decisive operations against threats closer to home, not for prolonged, large-scale occupation in a foreign country with a vastly different cultural and political landscape. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have experience in urban warfare and counterinsurgency, but the scale and nature of operations in Yemen would stretch their capabilities, especially considering the need for sustained presence to effectively dismantle a group as entrenched as the Houthis.
The human cost would be extraordinarily high. The Houthis are known for their guerrilla tactics, blending into civilian populations, using urban environments to their advantage, and employing asymmetric warfare strategies like suicide bombings and IEDs. Israel would face not just military resistance but also a potential insurgency, leading to significant Israeli and Yemeni civilian casualties, which would be politically and morally untenable both domestically and internationally.
Diplomatically, Israel would be isolated in such an endeavor. The Arab world would likely unite against such an intervention, viewing it as an aggressive move by a non-Arab state into Arab affairs. This could lead to a broader regional conflict or at least significant opposition, reducing Israel's operational freedom and potentially resulting in international condemnation. Even allies like the United States might be hesitant to support such an aggressive unilateral action, given the complexities of Middle Eastern politics.
Economically, the cost of such an operation would be prohibitive for Israel alone. Sustaining an occupation, rebuilding efforts, and dealing with the humanitarian fallout would require resources beyond what Israel has historically committed to its military campaigns. The "you broke it, you fix it" scenario would apply here, demanding long-term investment in Yemen's recovery, something Israel would be ill-prepared to manage single-handedly.
Furthermore, the strategic implications would be dire. Engaging in Yemen could overextend Israel's military, leaving it vulnerable to other threats, particularly from Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza. This could lead to a multi-front war scenario, which Israel has historically sought to avoid. The Houthis' ties to Iran would also mean that Israel might invite direct or indirect retaliation from Tehran, escalating the conflict regionally.
While Israel has one of the most effective militaries in the world for its specific context, the task of invading, holding, and destroying the Houthis in Yemen would be beyond its unilateral capacity. It would require not only an unprecedented military commitment but also a level of international support, strategic depth, and political will that is currently not feasible. Such an operation would likely lead to a quagmire, with no clear path to victory or stability, making it a highly improbable venture for Israel by itself.
Regardless of who invaded, casualties would be a significant concern. Given the Houthis' tactics, which include guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings, and the use of civilian areas for military purposes, both military and civilian casualties could be high. Estimates might see coalition forces facing hundreds to thousands of casualties, with the potential for even higher numbers among Yemeni civilians due to the nature of urban combat and the Houthis' strategy of blending with the populace.
The timeline for such an operation could extend into years, not months. Initial phases might control key areas within a year or two, but rooting out the Houthi insurgency, dealing with remnants, and ensuring stability would likely take much longer. The fear of a "forever war" is real, considering the historical resilience of insurgent groups in similar contexts, like in Afghanistan or Iraq, where even after major military victories, insurgent activities continued to challenge peace and stability.
The operation would also need to contend with widespread local resistance, not just from committed Houthi fighters but from civilians who might see foreign troops as occupiers. This could lead to a rise in insurgency, with tactics like suicide bombings becoming more prevalent as the Houthis fight back asymmetrically. The cultural and religious aspects, with the Houthis presenting themselves as defenders of Yemen's sovereignty and Zaydi Shia identity, would further complicate the operation, potentially fueling a broader resistance.
Post-conflict, again, the "you broke it, you fix it" scenario would be inevitable. Destroying the Houthis would leave a power vacuum, necessitating nation-building efforts, including restoring governance, rebuilding infrastructure, and addressing the humanitarian crisis. This would require long-term international commitment, with billions in aid and a significant military presence to maintain order, all while facing the challenge of fostering a government that represents diverse Yemeni factions, which could be as contentious as the military operation itself.
While a military campaign to destroy the Houthis is perhaps popular and romantic. It could be initiated, the complexity, cost in lives, resources, and time, coupled with the potential for enduring conflict, highlight the operation's daunting nature. Any such plan would need to be weighed against the political will for long-term engagement, the potential for international backlash, and the moral implications of such extensive military action, especially in a region already scarred by conflict and humanitarian crises. The aftermath would demand an even greater commitment to rebuilding Yemen, with no guarantee of success or stability in the long term.
Conclusion:
The interplay between Yemen, the Houthis, Israel, and the United States in 2025 underscores the intricate dynamics of a region shaped by historical grievances, ideological commitments, and strategic interests. The Houthis have transformed from a localized insurgency to a significant regional actor, influencing geopolitics far beyond Yemen's borders. Their actions, whether through maritime disruptions, missile attacks on Israel, or their alignment with Iran's Axis of Resistance, exemplify the multifaceted nature of modern asymmetric warfare.
The responses from Israel and the United States reflect a blend of military force and strategic diplomacy, aimed at countering Houthi provocations while avoiding a broader regional escalation. However, the humanitarian toll and the persistent instability in Yemen highlight the limitations of purely militarized approaches to such deeply rooted conflicts.
Moving forward, the prospects for peace remain uncertain. The Houthis’ resilience, the fragmented nature of Yemeni governance, and the broader Middle Eastern tensions present formidable obstacles to lasting stability. Diplomatic initiatives, while vital, require concerted international effort, addressing not only the immediate conflicts but also the underlying socio-political and economic issues that fuel them.
In conclusion, the situation represents both a challenge and an opportunity for regional and global actors. Resolving the complex web of conflicts surrounding Yemen could herald a new era of cooperation and stability in the Middle East. Conversely, failure to address these challenges risks further entrenching divisions and perpetuating cycles of violence, with implications that extend far beyond the region. The stakes could not be higher, as the outcomes will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
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