Things that caught my eyes 28 November 2024
This is my news scan from 27 November 2024 at 0710 Eastern Time until 28 November 2024 at 0705 Eastern Time
Space Force looks to bulk up against anti-satellite weapons
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5013165-space-force-countering-asat-threats/
The U.S. Space Force is actively working to enhance its defenses against anti-satellite (ASAT) threats, driven by the increasing capabilities of adversaries like China and Russia. This includes the development of more resilient satellite systems and exploring both offensive and defensive space technologies. The initiative aims to safeguard the vast array of U.S. space assets that are crucial for national security, including communication, navigation, and surveillance satellites. The Space Force is also considering new strategies like satellite maneuvering, deployment of decoys, and the use of ground-based or space-based weapons to counter potential ASAT threats.
Georgia Ruling Party Approves Cabinet With Kobakhidze as Premier
Georgia's ruling party has confirmed Irakli Kobakhidze as the new Prime Minister along with a new cabinet, aiming to consolidate power and address ongoing socio-economic reforms. This move comes at a time when Georgia is navigating its foreign policy between Western integration and maintaining relations with Russia. Kobakhidze's appointment is seen as a continuation of the party's agenda to strengthen governance and policy execution. Critics, however, voice concerns over potential democratic backsliding and the concentration of power. (JJM comment: Recall, the Georgian election was wrought with claims of massive Russian interference.)
Sea Trials Begin for China’s Revolutionary Civilian Carrier
China has commenced sea trials for what it describes as its first civilian aircraft carrier, marking a new chapter in its maritime capabilities. This vessel, while officially for civilian use, has sparked discussions about its potential dual-purpose applications, including military logistics and regional influence. The carrier's design and capabilities are being closely monitored by global naval analysts for insights into China's shipbuilding technology and strategic maritime ambitions. This development underscores China's effort to expand its naval presence and soft power in international waters. (JJM comment: This one I will be keeping an eye on)
China Probes Top Military Official Overseeing Political Loyalty
Chinese authorities have initiated an investigation into Miao Hua, a high-ranking military official tasked with ensuring political loyalty within the People's Liberation Army. This probe is part of a broader anti-corruption campaign aimed at purging the ranks and reinforcing Xi Jinping's control over the military. The investigation highlights ongoing challenges in maintaining political discipline and loyalty in the military amid significant restructuring. It also raises questions about the stability and governance within China's military hierarchy.
Biden and Trump tariffs lead to US container boom
Despite rising tariffs and looming trade wars, US imports are surging to historic highs. In October 2024, Los Angeles and Long Beach ports hit 2.5 million TEUs—a staggering 88% increase from the previous year. Yet freight rates continue to fall.
Are We Witnessing the End of China’s Rise?
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/11/28/are-we-witnessing-the-end-of-chinas-rise/
The article speculates on whether China's rapid economic growth might be reaching its zenith due to various domestic and international pressures. Issues like demographic challenges, economic debt, and increasing geopolitical tensions are cited as potential brakes on China's ascent. While China has made significant strides in technology, trade, and infrastructure, there are signs of economic slowdown and policy missteps that could alter its trajectory. The piece suggests that the next decade might see China focusing more on internal stability rather than global expansion.
Airbus struggles to capitalise on rival Boeing’s difficulties
https://www.ft.com/content/3b5b4fdc-515b-40e3-9202-fc52cd51e895
Despite Boeing facing significant operational and safety issues, Airbus has found it challenging to fully capitalize on the situation. Supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, and production delays have limited Airbus's ability to increase its market share. Additionally, the competitive landscape is changing with new entrants and a general slowdown in demand due to economic factors. The situation underscores the complexities of the aerospace industry where one company's misfortune doesn't automatically translate into another's gain. (JJM comment: Recall the strike by Boeing's machinists ended when the union members voted to accept a new contract offer on November 4, 2024. So the time to capitalize on Boeing’s involuntary downtime has come and gone. Now all is left is Boeing’s public perception issues as its major headwind along with delivery delays.)
Russia now largest crude oil supplier to India, accounts for over 35%: Puri
Russia has emerged as India's top crude oil supplier, with imports surpassing 35% of India's total crude oil intake. This shift has been driven by discounted Russian oil, a consequence of Western sanctions that have redirected Moscow's exports. For India, this represents a strategic move to diversify its energy sources while benefiting from lower prices. However, this dependency could also expose India to geopolitical risks and fluctuations in global oil politics. (JJM comment: Recall that India has rejected using LNG from Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project which is sanction, but has continued to buy Urals crude despite the sanctions at quite a discount rate.)
Shipping giant Maersk unveils latest ‘dual-fuel methanol vessel’ in decarbonization shift
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/shipping-maersk-unveils-latest-dual-fuel-methanol-vessel.html
Maersk has introduced a new dual-fuel methanol vessel as part of its strategy to decarbonize its fleet, responding to global environmental pressures. This ship can run on methanol, which produces lower CO2 emissions compared to traditional bunker fuel, aligning with Maersk's goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. The vessel is designed for flexibility, allowing it to switch between methanol and conventional fuel based on availability and cost. This move signifies a broader industry shift towards sustainable shipping practices, though challenges remain in scaling methanol production and infrastructure. (JJM comment: I’ll be keeping an eye on this one too)
BYD reportedly preps for Trump 2.0 tariffs with 10% supplier cost cuts in 2025
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241128PD210/trump-2.0-2025-byd-mexico-supply-chain-tariff.html
BYD, a leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, is reportedly preparing for potential tariff hikes under a second Trump administration by negotiating a 10% cost reduction from its suppliers for 2025. This strategic move is aimed at maintaining competitive pricing in the U.S. market despite possible trade barriers. The company has also been exploring local manufacturing in Mexico to circumvent some tariffs while staying close to the U.S. market. This reflects broader concerns among Chinese firms about U.S. policy shifts affecting global trade dynamics.
Equipment supplier gives hints at FOPLP development progress among Taiwanese companies
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241127PD219/foplp-packaging-microled-panel-supplier-taiwan.html
An equipment supplier has revealed that Taiwanese companies are advancing in Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP) technology, which could revolutionize semiconductor packaging. FOPLP promises to be more cost-effective and enable higher chip density, crucial for next-generation electronics. These advancements are particularly important for microLED displays and other high-performance applications. The progress suggests Taiwan could maintain or even enhance its lead in semiconductor manufacturing technology.
Trump says he had a ‘very productive conversation’ with Mexico’s president
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5013668-trump-conversation-mexicos-president/
Donald Trump has claimed a "very productive conversation" with Mexico's President, discussing issues like trade, security, and immigration. This dialogue comes amid speculation about how Trump's potential policies could affect U.S.-Mexico relations if he returns to office. The conversation might signal an attempt to lay the groundwork for future cooperation or to address ongoing bilateral concerns. However, specifics of the talks or any agreements remain undisclosed. (JJM comment: here’s a message that he posted on Truth social about the conversation:
The Next Four Years Will Be All About Natural Gas
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Next-Four-Years-Will-Be-All-About-Natural-Gas.html
The article argues that natural gas will play a pivotal role in energy policy over the next four years, driven by its cleaner profile compared to coal and oil. It's seen as a bridge fuel facilitating the transition to more sustainable energy sources while still meeting current energy demands. Political changes, particularly in the U.S., could influence natural gas policies, including export strategies and domestic production incentives. The sector is also poised for technological advancements that could further enhance its role in global energy markets.
Total Pauses New York Offshore Wind Project After Trump Win
Following Donald Trump's election victory, TotalEnergies has decided to pause its offshore wind project off New York, reflecting uncertainty over future U.S. energy policies. The decision stems from concerns that the incoming administration might scale back or alter support for renewable energy projects. This development could impact the broader offshore wind sector, which relies heavily on government incentives and regulatory support. It also highlights the sensitivity of large-scale green energy investments to political changes.
Trump prepares wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports, oil drilling, sources say
Sources indicate that Donald Trump is formulating an extensive energy policy for his potential second term, focusing on increasing natural gas exports and expanding oil drilling. This plan would aim to leverage U.S. energy resources to enhance national security and economic growth. It includes reducing regulations on fossil fuel industries to accelerate production and infrastructure development. Critics worry about the environmental repercussions and the shift away from renewable energy commitments.
Beijing’s online influence operations along the India–China border
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-online-influence-operations-along-the-india-china-border/
China is alleged to be employing sophisticated online influence operations targeting the India-China border areas to sway public opinion and disrupt unity. These operations involve spreading disinformation, promoting narratives favorable to China, and undermining Indian governance and military actions in the region. Social media platforms are leveraged to create confusion and discord among local populations. This digital warfare is part of a broader strategy to gain strategic advantages in ongoing border disputes.
Trump Picks Keith Kellogg as Envoy for Ukraine and Russia
Donald Trump has selected Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general, to serve as a special envoy for Ukraine and Russia issues. According to the article, the appointment signals Trump's intent to engage directly with the ongoing conflict and possibly negotiate a resolution. Kellogg's experience in national security and previous roles in the Trump administration make him a strategic choice for this diplomatic position. The move could imply a shift in U.S. policy towards these nations, focusing on de-escalation and diplomatic solutions.
AI Chatbot is the Focus of a Simmering Dispute at the Pentagon
An AI chatbot intended for use within the U.S. military has become the center of a contentious debate at the Pentagon. The disagreement revolves around issues of data security, the potential for misinformation, and ethical considerations in deploying AI for military decision-making. Some see the chatbot as a tool to enhance operational efficiency, while others are wary of its implications on human judgment and privacy. This dispute reflects broader tensions about integrating AI into sensitive military contexts.
OPEC, Russia Hold High Level Meeting
OPEC and Russia have convened for a high-level meeting to discuss oil production strategies amidst global economic volatility. The agenda includes reviewing production quotas, assessing market conditions, and planning for oil price stabilization. This collaboration is crucial as both parties navigate through sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, and the push towards energy transition. The outcomes of these talks could significantly influence global oil supply and pricing. (JJM comment: Recall that Saudi Arabia in particular has been very vocal about Russia lying about its production numbers and has directly accused the Kremlin of overproduction.)
Romania Calls Defense Meeting Over Election Meddling Risk
Romania has called for a defense council meeting to tackle the risk of foreign interference in its upcoming elections. The focus is on countering cyber threats, misinformation campaigns, and other forms of digital manipulation. This move reflects heightened concerns about election integrity, especially given the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. Romania is looking to strengthen its cybersecurity measures and public awareness to safeguard the democratic process.
EU Goal to Displace Natural Gas with Hydrogen Facing Major Headwinds, Energy Regulator Warns
The European Union's ambition to replace natural gas with hydrogen for energy production is facing significant obstacles, according to energy regulators. Challenges include the high cost of hydrogen production, the need for substantial infrastructure changes, and the current technological immaturity of hydrogen as a widespread energy source. There's also skepticism about whether hydrogen can match natural gas in terms of cost and efficiency in the near term. These headwinds could delay or alter the EU's strategy for reducing carbon emissions.
What Elon Musk Got Wrong About the F-35
This video from Ryan McBeth on YouTube critiques statements made by Elon Musk about the F-35 fighter jet, highlighting where his comments might not align with the aircraft's actual capabilities or development history. Musk's critiques on the jet's cost, performance, and strategic role are examined, often suggesting oversimplifications or factual inaccuracies. The F-35's development has indeed faced challenges, but it also offers unique capabilities in stealth, sensor fusion, and interoperability that Musk's statements might not fully acknowledge. The discussion aims to provide a more balanced view of the F-35 program's complexities and achievements.
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Disclaimer:
The headlines presented here are taken directly from the referenced articles and do not reflect any personal value judgment or opinion. I make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or truthfulness of the content of these articles. All news and information should be carefully scrutinized, considering the credibility of the source, the facts presented, and the strength of the supporting evidence. Readers are encouraged to form their own conclusions through critical analysis.