Summary:
In this episode, we examine the growing militarization of space, focusing on the development and testing of anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) by various nations, including the U.S., Russia, China, and India. We detail the history of space militarization, from the Cold War to the present, highlighting the dangers of space debris and the inadequacy of existing treaties like the Outer Space Treaty in addressing modern threats. Different types of ASATs are described, both kinetic and non-kinetic, along with electronic warfare systems used for disrupting satellites. We also discuss the lack of international cooperation and robust enforcement mechanisms to prevent an arms race in space, emphasizing the need for new agreements to ensure the peaceful use of outer space. Ultimately, we warn of the potential for space to become a new theater of conflict.
Questions to consider as you read/listen:
What are the primary drivers of space militarization globally
How effective are existing treaties in preventing space weaponization?
What are the potential consequences of an armed conflict in space?
Long format:
The Quiet Crisis Above: Unveiling the Dark Side of Space Militarization
By Justin James McShane
TL;DR:
Space is increasingly militarized, with nations like the U.S., Russia, China, and India developing anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) and electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting or destroying satellites. Recent tests, such as Russia's 2021 ASAT test, have escalated tensions and created dangerous debris in orbit. Treaties like the Outer Space Treaty (1967) aim to prevent weaponization, but gaps in regulation allow conventional weapons and military activity in space. The lack of modern agreements and enforcement mechanisms risks turning space into a conflict zone, threatening global communication, navigation, and scientific exploration. International cooperation is crucial to keep space peaceful.
Introduction
The militarization of space has evolved from a distant Cold War possibility to a present-day reality, where nations are deploying capabilities that could potentially turn outer space into a new battleground. This article delves into the current state of space militarization, highlighting recent threats, the development of anti-satellite weapons, and the treaties designed to keep space peaceful.
History:
Here is a concise history of issues related to the militarization of space:
1950s - Space Race Begins:
The launch of Sputnik by the Soviet Union in 1957 marked the beginning of space exploration with an implicit military subtext, as both the USSR and the USA used space to demonstrate technological prowess, which had military implications.
1960s - Early Militarization:
The U.S. and Soviet Union developed reconnaissance satellites for espionage. The U.S. had an operational Anti-Satellite (ASAT) system by 1960. The Outer Space Treaty was signed in 1967, banning nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in space but not conventional weapons.
1970s - 1980s:
The U.S. tested its first ASAT weapon in 1985. Both superpowers researched non-nuclear weapons like laser systems for space warfare. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI or "Star Wars") by Reagan in 1983 aimed at a missile defense shield using space-based technologies.
1989 - End of Cold War:
This period saw a reduction in overt space weaponization efforts due to thawing U.S.-Soviet relations, but military space programs continued.
Late 20th Century to Early 21st Century:
With the end of the Cold War, the focus shifted to space surveillance and missile defense. However, interest in ASAT capabilities persisted, especially with the rise of China as a space power.
2007 - China's ASAT Test: China demonstrated its ASAT capabilities by destroying one of its own satellites, escalating concerns over space militarization.
2010s - Present: India tested an ASAT missile in 2019, joining the ranks of nations with such capabilities. Russia conducted an ASAT test in 2021, criticized for creating debris. The U.S. established the Space Force in 2019, focusing on protecting U.S. interests in space and potentially engaging in space warfare if needed.
Recent Threats to Militarize Space
In November 2021, Russia conducted a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) test, destroying one of its old satellites, Cosmos 1408, with a ground-based missile. This action not only demonstrated Russia's capability to engage targets in space but also created a significant amount of space debris, posing risks to other space assets. This test has been criticized internationally for its irresponsible nature, potentially threatening the safety of space operations like those on the International Space Station. While the U.S. has been at the forefront of space militarization with the establishment of the U.S. Space Force, aimed at protecting U.S. interests in space, it has also taken steps towards non-proliferation of certain space weapons. In April 2022, the Biden administration announced a self-ban on testing anti-satellite weapons, urging other nations to follow suit to preserve the space environment. China has been active in developing its space capabilities, including ASAT technology. In 2007, China tested an ASAT weapon which destroyed a satellite, leading to widespread debris. This action raised concerns about China's intentions in space, potentially to deter U.S. space-based military assets in any conflict scenario over regions like the South China Sea.
Anti-Satellite Weapons
Several nations possess or are developing anti-satellite capabilities. There are two major types of ASAT weapons. The first are Kinetic ASAT Weapons which include missiles designed to physically destroy satellites or co-orbital ASAT which are satellites that can maneuver into the path of an enemy satellite to either destroy it by collision or interfere with its operations through proximity operations. Countries like the U.S., Russia, China, and India have tested such systems. The second are Non-Kinetic ASAT Weapons. These encompass electronic warfare, cyber-attacks, and directed energy weapons like lasers. These methods can disable satellites without creating debris, though they're less publicly acknowledged.
Here is an overview of some of the most current Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons known to be in the world's inventories, along with their country of origin and capabilities:
For the United States, the current inventory includes: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD), Space-Based Interceptor (SBI) and Laser Systems. The Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) is primarily designed as an anti-ballistic missile system. Its exo-atmospheric interceptors could potentially function as ASAT weapons due to their ability to engage targets in space. The Space-Based Interceptor (SBI) is part of the Missile Defense Agency's research, this concept involves satellites with interceptors for ballistic missile defense, theoretically adaptable for ASAT purposes. The ASM-135 was developed during the Cold War. This was an air-launched ASAT missile. It was successfully tested in 1985 when an F-15 launched it to destroy the P78-1 (Solwind) satellite. The system was designed with a Miniature Homing Vehicle (MHV) that would collide directly with the target, employing the principle of kinetic kill. The U.S. has explored directed-energy weapons, including those for ASAT roles. The Airborne Laser Testbed, for instance, was a project to develop a laser-equipped Boeing 747 to shoot down missiles or satellites. Space-Based Laser (SBL) concepts are still in the table of thought. Although the Reagan-era project was canceled, the concept of using lasers from space to disable or destroy satellites has been revisited in various forms. Airborne Laser (ABL) were initially aimed at shooting down ballistic missiles, the technology could theoretically engage satellites if modified for that role.
For Russia, the current inventory includes Nudol and the S-500 Prometheus. The Nudol (A-235/PL-19 Nudol) is a direct-ascent kinetic ASAT system designed to intercept satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). It was tested in 2021, successfully destroying a satellite. It's also part of Russia's Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) system. The S-500 Prometheus is primarily an air and missile defense system, but there are claims that it might have an ASAT capability, especially for lower orbit satellites.
For China, its inventory includes the DN-1, DN-2 and co-orbital ASAT technologies. The DN-1 is a direct-ascent kinetic ASAT missile. It was tested in 2007 against the FY-1C weather satellite. This test created a significant amount of space debris. The DN-2 is a more advanced version of the DN-1, reportedly capable of reaching geosynchronous orbits (GEO), though this capability has not been publicly demonstrated. China has tested technologies that could place a satellite near an adversary's satellite for potential interference or destruction using co-orbital ASAT technology.
India's ASAT test involved a PDV Mark-II missile, which is an anti-ballistic missile system modified for the test. It successfully destroyed a satellite in low Earth orbit at an altitude of about 300 km on March 27, 2019.
The development and deployment of ASAT capabilities are often cloaked in secrecy, making it challenging to have a complete and up-to-date inventory. However, these listed systems represent the known or publicly acknowledged technologies in this domain. The strategic use of these weapons could potentially lead to space becoming a domain of conflict, prompting international calls for regulations and treaties to prevent such scenarios.
Electronic Warfare Systems:
Electronic Warfare (EW) systems play a crucial role in Anti-Satellite (ASAT) operations by interfering with, jamming, or spoofing satellite communications and navigation systems without physically destroying them. Here are some examples and concepts of EW systems that could be or are being used for ASAT roles. There are several different jamming techniques and systems. Uplink jamming systems target the communication link between satellites and their ground stations. By overwhelming the satellite's receiver with noise or false signals, they can prevent the satellite from receiving legitimate commands or transmitting data. Downlink jamming systems are aimed at disrupting the satellite's ability to send data back to Earth, making the satellite's intelligence or surveillance capabilities useless. Crosslink jamming interfere with the communication channels between satellites, which can be critical in satellite constellations where data is relayed from one satellite to another.
The U.S. Counter Communications System (CCS) is designed to disrupt satellite communications. Its Block 10.2 version is known for its capability to temporarily disrupt satellite operations. Russia's Borisoglebsk-2 is a multi-functional electronic warfare system capable of intercepting, locating, and jamming various signals, including satellite communications and navigation signals like GPS/GLONASS. Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is Russia's version of GPS. The Borisoglebsk-2 is designed to suppress enemy communications and electronic intelligence-gathering capabilities. China's Electronic Warfare capabilities include demonstrated significant capabilities in electronic warfare, including technologies that could jam or spoof satellite signals. This includes capabilities to interfere with satellite navigation systems, potentially affecting GPS, GLONASS, or their own Beidou system. Announced in November 2021 by Israel Aerospace Industries, a system named Scopius can disrupt radar, communications, and potentially satellite signals from ships, UAVs, and other platforms simultaneously. There is evidence that North Korea possesses capabilities to jam and possibly spoof GPS signals, which could disrupt navigation and communications in regions like the Korean Peninsula. During military exercises or significant political events, there have been instances where GPS signals were jammed, affecting both civilian and military navigation in South Korea and adjacent waters. While less documented, there have been suggestions that North Korea might attempt to spoof Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals, though this capability is harder to verify or might be less sophisticated compared to other nations.
Emerging technologies like High-Power Microwave (HPM) Systems are technologies for us all to keep an eye on. They are non-kinetic, but will disable satellites in place. These can be used to overload or damage satellite electronics from a distance, although they're more commonly associated with terrestrial targets such as drone swarms, their application against satellites isn't out of the realm of possibility. See our EP86: The Real Answer to Drone Swarms: Meet the U.S. Weapon Changing the Battlefield (Epirus Leonidas) for more information on the technology and its terrestrial use. https://www.geopoliticsunplugged.com/audio/episode-86-the-real-answer-to-drone-swarms-meet-the-u-s-weapon-changing-the-battlefield-epirus-leonidas/
Electronic warfare for ASAT roles focuses on denying or degrading an adversary's use of space without the physical destruction and debris creation associated with kinetic ASAT weapons. This approach aligns with broader strategies of space control and protection of national space assets. However, the specifics of these systems are often kept confidential due to their sensitive military applications.
The development of all of these weapons underscores the potential for space to become a theater of war, where satellites critical for navigation, communication, and military intelligence could be prime targets.
Treaties to Prevent Militarization of Space
The Outer Space Treaty (1967) is the cornerstone of space law, this treaty prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies. It also declares that the Moon and other celestial bodies shall be used exclusively for peaceful purposes. However, it does not ban all military activities in space, leaving room for interpretation regarding traditional military hardware like ASAT weapons. The Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) includes efforts under this initiative at the UN that aim to prevent an arms race in space. Various proposals, including a draft treaty by Russia and China in 2008, have been tabled but have not led to binding agreements due to disagreements over verification regimes and coverage of terrestrially based ASAT systems. The Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT) are proposed by Russia and China. This draft treaty seeks to prevent the weaponization of space but has faced criticism for not addressing ground-based ASAT systems adequately. The current legal framework, primarily based on the Outer Space Treaty, lacks specificity on many modern threats posed by space militarization. The dual-use nature of space technology, where civilian and military applications overlap, complicates regulation. Moreover, the absence of a robust international body to enforce space law or regulate new conflicts in space adds to the challenge.
Conclusion
The militarization of space represents a complex interplay of national security, international law, and global cooperation. While no nation has openly declared an intent to wage war in space, the development of ASAT capabilities and the increasing strategic reliance on space assets suggest that the domain might become contested. The international community's ability to negotiate and enforce new treaties will be crucial in ensuring that space remains a realm for peace and scientific exploration rather than a new frontier for warfare.
Sources:
https://behorizon.org/increased-militarisation-of-space-a-new-realm-of-security/
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